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Tuesday through Wednesday Night Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THERE REMAINS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SUITES AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED FORCED ASCENT WILL BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA DURING THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNSET AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH SREF PROBS OF EVEN 500 J/KG HOLDING BELOW 5% OVER LAND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT WE WILL INITIALLY SEE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO. WITH THIS IN MIND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS. COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STEADILY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ORGANIZES WELL TO THE NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT OVERHEAD ALL BUT COLLAPSES. MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES RATHER STRUNG OUT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND SHOULD EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING TO WEAKEN AND THIN OUT AS IT MOVES EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST POPS SHOWING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL VALUES OVER THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. THESE POPS TAPER TO ONLY LOW END CHANCE VALUES AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES APPROACHING THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. SHOWALTER INDICES SHOW A LESSENING OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES AND WILL NOT BRING THUNDER MENTION EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A HIGH POP/LOW IMPACT EVENT...MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAINFALL TONIGHT...THE DURATION IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IN FACT...AS THE OVERALL DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO COLLAPSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...FAR EASTERN AREA FROM VALDOSTA INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND MAY ONLY SEE A QUICK LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS PASS THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS RAPIDLY DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECTING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON ALMOST REGION-WIDE WITH A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S UP INTO THE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD AND WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...EXPECTING A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING. ASSUMING SURFACE WINDS CAN DROP TO CALM (WHICH APPEARS QUITE LIKELY WITH THE FORECAST HIGH POSITION) MANY NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THIS TIME AS FROST CAN TAKE HOLD AT GROUND LEVEL EVEN WITH 2 METER TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 30S. A PLEASANT FALL DAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS...ESPECIALLY LATE...TO FILTER THE SUN AS GFS/ECMWF SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHING IN THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE STILL IN PROXIMITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY ONCE AGAIN SEE A FEW AREAS APPROACH FREEZING LATE. BEST CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SEE FROST WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SANDIER SOILS OF THE BIG BEND. THIS IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST THAN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANY CIRRUS POSSIBLY STILL OVERHEAD WOULD BE ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESS AND KEEP TEMPS UP A FEW EXTRA DEGREES.


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