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Friday Night through Monday Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE 12 UTC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THEY TAKE THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST. THE BIG QUESTION FOR SATURDAY MORNING IS WHETHER OR NOT (OR HOW QUICKLY) THE SURFACE WINDS WILL GO CALM. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE WE ANTICIPATE THEY WILL DROP NEAR CALM A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LITTLE COLDER IF THE WIND GOES CALM EARLIER THAN FORECAST...OR A WARMER IF THE WINDS DO NOT GO CALM AT ALL. OUR FORECAST IS AN AVERAGE OF THE MAV...MET...AND BIAS-CORRECTED GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. ANOTHER FREEZE IS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABLY NOT A HARD FREEZE. OUR LOCAL PROBABILITIES SHOW A 90-100 PERCENT CHANCE OF A FREEZE TONIGHT...AND A 60-90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE PROBABILITY OF A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT IS 60 PERCENT OR HIGHER. FROST IS NOT LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO THE NON-ZERO WIND SPEEDS AND VERY DRY AIR...BUT IS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY (BUT ABOVE-FREEZING) MORNING MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AVERAGE VALUES MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND Q-G FORCING TO A WARRANT A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 12 UTC GFS MOS POP.


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