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Tuesday Night through Thursday Night Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WED. THE NORMALLY COLDEST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID 20S WITH NINE HOUR DURATIONS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER, BUT WILL STILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST (BEACHES) IS FORECAST TO ESCAPE A FREEZE TONIGHT. THE CURRENT HARD FREEZE WARNING LOOKS FINE AS IS AND WILL NOT NEED TO BE UPDATED/REISSUED UNTIL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRES. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z WED. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN SIX OR SO HOURS FASTER, TEMPS WOULD DROP EVEN LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH WINDS ONLY EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DAWN. THEREFORE, TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN URBAN CENTERS LIKE TALLAHASSEE AND SURROUNDING MORE RURAL AREAS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS EXTREME AS ON IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS. PREDICTED MIN TEMPS WILL ESTABLISH NEW RECORD LOWS FOR THE 19TH IN MANY AREAS. SOME RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR NOV 19 ARE AS FOLLOWS:
DOTHAN 25 IN 1997
TALLAHASSEE FL 29 IN 1990
APALACHICOLA FL 34 IN 1951
PANAMA CITY FL 34 IN 1990
ALBANY GA 27 IN 1967
LOOK FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY ON WED WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`RE SEEING TODAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE, HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE SE AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. A BRIEF FREEZE IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF SW AND S CENTRAL GA AS WELL AS THE FL BIG BEND AND RURAL AREAS OF SE AL. DEW POINT DEPRESSION WILL BE NEAR ZERO WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE, UNLIKE TONIGHT, WE EXPECT A WIDESPREAD FROST TO DEVELOP. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS THU NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.


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