May 19, 2013
WE ANTICIPATE THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE DYNAMICS APPROACHES FROM THE W. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THAT WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE FIRST SEVERE TSTM WARNING OF THE AFTERNOON HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED AT 2015Z...AND SPC IS CONSIDERING A WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MS RIVER WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR NWRN ZONES (SE AL) BY AROUND 09Z SAT AND EXIT DIXIE COUNTY FL TO THE SE AROUND 18-20Z. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON SAT WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE MORNING LOWS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL TUMBLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S BY DAYBREAK SUN. DAYTIME HIGHS SUN WILL BE A GOOD 12-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS STRUGGLING TO HIT 60. WE ARE FORECASTING A FREEZE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER AREAS FOR EARLY MON MORNING. URBAN AREAS SUCH AS DOTHAN AND TALLAHASSEE ARE NOT FORECAST TO FREEZE, NOR ARE COASTAL AREAS.
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