Thursday through Saturday Night Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROF FROM THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE UPPER PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY IN AN AREA OF FORCED ASCENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE NAM AND GFS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON THE SUBTLE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE MOST SUPPORT FROM THE 13/12Z EURO AS WELL. THE UPPER TROF HAS BEEN PREDICTED TO FILL AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN AMPLIFYING TROF MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE TROF TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS AND OUR LOCALLY RUN PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE WHICH EVALUATES THESE PARAMETERS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED MUCH HIGHER WITH SBCAPE /2000 J/KG PLUS IN FLORIDA/ WHEREAS THE NAM IS LESS...BUT STILL A ROBUST 1000 J/KG OR BETTER. THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AND MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF AN OCTOBER EVENT THAN MID NOVEMBER. THIS IS CERTAINLY INDICATIVE OF THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6KM) IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND EURO ARE TRENDING TOWARD 50 KNOTS OF SHEAR...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. 0-1 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KNOTS...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT AS WELL. THE OVERALL SHEAR PROFILE IS UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGHOUT THE 0-6KM LAYER. THUS...THE OVERALL DOMINANT THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED CELLS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN STRUCTURE AND BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOW LARGE OF A THREAT THIS POSES IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AND CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA NO LATER THAN 18Z SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WINDY DAY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


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