Forecast Discussion through Friday Night

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE STATES. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY...THEN LIFTING ENE ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUING NE...OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND BEING ABSORBED BY THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE TX COAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN TX. AS THE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TOWARD THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. DEWPOINTS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AN ISOLATED EVENT OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. A CONTINUANCE OF RAIN AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LIMITING FACTORS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.


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