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Friday through Tuesday Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN HANDLING EXTENDED SCENARIO. EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CWA ASSOCD WITH PROXIMITY OF WEAK STATIONARY FRONT. OTHERWISE... GUIDANCE 24 HRS AGO SHOWED AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY DEEPENING H5/H2 TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN CONUS DURING EARLY EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST RUN WITH MORE DEAMPLIFIED PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY CUTOFF LOW OVER SE TEXAS AND MUCH BROADER AND SLOWER MOVING TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FRI-SUN WITH PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW PRECEDING TROUGH. THIS BROADER TROUGH WILL DISPLAY LESS DYNAMICS THAN PREV RUN BUT STILL BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO ACROSS CWA TO INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH APPROACH OF WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SLOWER MOVING TROUGH WILL DELAY ARRIVAL OF FRONT UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING WITH BOUNDARY S OF CWA BY AFTN. THIS DELAYS ONSET OF COLD FRONT RAIN UNTIL FRI AFTN (WRN ZONES) AND FRI NIGHT (ERN ZONES) WITH GFS/EURO BOTH SHOWING MAIN LIFT PREDAWN HRS OF EARLY SAT MORNING WITH FRONT/LIFT EXITING ERN ZONES BY AFTN. TIME HEIGHT X-SECTIONS DO NOT SUGGEST WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOWING A SHARP CLEARING AT TLH BY LATE MORNING (I.E. TLH MEX WITH 57 PCT POPS 00Z-12Z SAT AND 14 PCT POPS 12Z SAT-00Z SUN). THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR EVENING FSU FOOTBALL GAME. HOWEVER...ANY FURTHER SLOWING DOWN OF FRONT COULD CHANGE THAT PROGNOSIS. IN WAKE OF FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA WITH GOOD CAA BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN-TUES WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY MON-TUES. WITH TIGHTER GRADIENTS...WE COULD SEE BREEZY CONDS FROM W-E SAT INTO SUN. POP GRIDS WILL SHOW HI SCT TO LOW LIKELY POPS THURS NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING WITH HIGHEST POPS TRANSLATING NW-SE THRU PERIOD. NO POPS SAT AFTN-TUES. WITH VEERING WINDS TO SLY...MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN CLIMO FRI (UPPER 70S INLAND)...DROPPING TO A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON SAT..THEN 5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO SUN BEFORE INCHING UP TO NEAR CLIMO ON TUES. NEW GUIDANCE NOT AS COLD AT NIGHT. I.E. SUN LOW AT TLH 39 (COMPARED TO 32 DEGREES LAST RUN). COLDEST TEMPS NOW LIKELY MON MORN (EXCEPT WRN ZONES) BUT STILL ONLY IN UPPER 30S.


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