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Wednesday through Thursday Forecast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE STATES. THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLIDING EAST AND OFF THE EAST COAST AS A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. OVERALL...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD THEN BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY DIVERGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS FROM THE GFS...WHICH SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TX/LA COAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF...NAM...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DISPLAY A MORE REASONABLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...WE WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A BLEND BETWEEN THESE MODELS IN THE FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY RISE. THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FROM THIS POINT...WE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHOW INCREASING POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TONIGHT TO THE LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.


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