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Thursday through Monday Weather Discussion

OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN HANDLING EXTENDED SCENARIO. AMPLIFIED PATTERN BEGINNING LATE SHORT TERM CONTINUES INTO WEEKEND. HIGHLIGHTED BY STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER WEST COAST RESULTING IN EQUALLY STRENGTHENING H5/H2 TROUGH THAT DEEPENS OVER CNTRL CONUS AND MOVES EAST TO ERN CONUS FRI-SUN DRIVING A COLD FRONT SEWD AND ACROSS CWA. GFS STILL REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER/MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS CWA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WHILE EURO DELAYS TO SAT. BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS LATTER. MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS NRN TIER STATES THURS-SAT WITH FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO GULF. MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH BOTH MODELS IS DEVELOPMENT OF GULF LOW. GFS SHOWS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST SPAWNING SURFACE REFLECTION IN CNTRL GULF OVERNIGHT THURS INTO EARLY FRI. THIS LOW OR WAVE MOVES NEWD ACROSS FRONT AND CWA ON FRI. EURO WITH MUCH WEAKER OPEN WAVE AND SEVERE WX GUIDANCE PLOTS SHOW CAPE/SHEAR/HELICITY MINIMAL AND REMAINING OVER WATERS. EVEN IF GFS VERIFIES...SEVERE WX GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONGEST INSTABILITY OVER WATER...12Z-18Z FRI WITH CAPE OVER LAND GENERALLY UNDER 1200 J/KG ...BULK SHEAR VECTORS UNDER 30 KTS AND 0-3KM HELICITY UNDER 50 M/S. IN SUM...WILL FAVOR LOWER EURO POPS AND DOWNPLAY HEAVY RAIN AND ANY THREAT OF SEVERE WX...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM COAST. POP GRIDS WILL SHOW MID-HIGH SCT POPS FRI-FRI NIGHT WRN HALF...AND FRI NIGHT-SAT ERN HALF OF CWA...WITH LOW (OR NO) POPS AT OTHER TIMES. WITH VEERING WINDS TO SLY...MAX TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN CLIMO THURS (AROUND 80 INLAND) AND FRI...DROPPING TO A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO ON SAT..THEN 7-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO SUN AND MON AS HIGH BUILDS IN WITH RED FLAG CONDS A GOOD BET. SHOULD GET COLD AT NIGHT AND MEX SHOWS A PREDAWN DROP TO 32 AT TLH MON MORNING.


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