May 25, 2013
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY WITH CHILLY MORNINGS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE SERN STATES. THE LENGTH OF THIS DRY PERIOD IS IN DOUBT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE E AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL WED. AFTER THAT TIME...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DIMINISHES. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS OFFERS A RATHER DIFFERENT SOLUTION TO THE PREVIOUS RUN, WHICH MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE 06/12Z EURO IN SHOWING A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER AR AT 12Z FRI. THE 18Z GFS LIFTED THIS FEATURE NEWD WHILE THE EURO MOVED IT BODILY EWD. THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A WEAKER UPPER FEATURE EWD MORE QUICKLY. FEEL THE BEST APPROACH AT THIS TIME IS TO INTRO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WED AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM THROUGH THU AND FRI. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY WHAT THE 00Z MEX SHOWS. HOWEVER...WE PLAN TO GO ABOVE THE MOS FOR NEXT FRI
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