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Forecast Discussion Through Sunday

By: NWS
By: NWS

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE NOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO HELP PUSH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTS PROGRESS...WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING WEST OF A LINE FROM AROUND TIFTON TO TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA. SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL CURRENTLY HOLDING OFF TO THE WEST BUT WILL SEE THE CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN INCREASING EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SE AL ZONES AND DOWN TOWARD WALTON COUNTY IN THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUES A FAIRLY STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEST CHANCES (IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY) FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL GENERALLY OCCUR BEFORE 2 AM. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER DOES APPEAR RATHER SMALL AT THIS TIME AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. ONE POSITIVE FACTOR INITIALLY IS A DECENT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ OF A 120KT 250-300MB JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS DIVERGENCE IS RATHER CONCENTRATED OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND SHOULD HELP THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR WEST HOLD TOGETHER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY ON THE OTHER HAND IS LIMITED AT BEST. IN FACT LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 500 J/KG (EVEN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES) ARE LESS THAN 10% OVER INLAND AREAS AND ONLY 20 TO 30% ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. LI`S ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ARE INITIALLY DECENT IN THE -1 TO -2 RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AL TO OUR WEST BUT RISE ABOVE ZERO INTO THE LATER EVENING HOURS AS THE BEST LIFT ARRIVES OVERHEAD. LATEST GFS STILL ADVERTISING LI`S AROUND 0 OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. SO AS IS OFTEN THE CASE DURING THE COOL SEASON...THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED STORM MENTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER FOR OUR LAND ZONES AND A CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER OFFSHORE. WILL THEN RESTRICT WEATHER TYPE WORDING TO ONLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAND ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS AND THE THERMODYNAMICS COLLAPSE. EITHER WAY THE BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY THIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST...WITH ANY RAINFALL BEING BRIEF IN NATURE. AREA-WIDE QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER INCH OVER THE WEST (ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS) AND ONLY AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AT BEST ACROSS THE EAST. THEREFORE ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A BRIEF SHOWER AND HENCE POPS ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE IN PLACES...THE OVERALL IMPACT SHOULD BE LOW.


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