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Sunday through Thursday Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND DAMPEN ON SUNDAY, THE FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT THEN BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT AND DEEPER RETURN FLOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE GULF THRU WED. ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TUES AND WED HELPING TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURS...AS TROUGH/SHORTWAVE SHIFTS FURTHER EWD...LOCAL FLOW ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL AS NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY SETTING UP UPSTREAM. AT LOWER LEVELS...IN THE WAKE OF EARLY WEEKEND FRONTAL PASSAGE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE CWA SUN AND MON. HOWEVER, WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, ONLY SLIGHT COOLING IN WAKE OF SAT FRONT EXPECTED. THEN, IN RESPONSE TO NEXT UPPER TROUGH... STRONGER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUE WITH FLOW QUICKLY VEERING TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE CWA WED WITH SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS FOR TUES NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT ADVERTISES BETTER FORCING ALOFT WITH MORE TIME FOR GULF RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. ALSO SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEDGE SETTING UP AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SO FOR ALL THESE REASONS....BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG WITH TSTMS THAN WITH PREVIOUS FRONT. POP FORECAST WILL SHOW SCT CONVECTION TUES NIGHT INTO WED WITH AOB WDLY SCT REST OF PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND CLIMO SUN AND MON...ABOVE CLIMO TUES AND WED AHEAD OF FRONT AND AROUND CLIMO ON THURS.


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