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Short Term Area Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

140 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A TROUGH AXIS W OF THE ROCKIES AND A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E OF THE MS RIVER. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 850 MB. THE REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE COASTS. LOW LEVEL NELY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT
ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF EXTENSIVE SRATUS/STRATOCU INTO THE CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE. DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE CLOUDS, HAVE LOWERED MEX TEMPS THIS AFTN TO UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA, AND BRING
PARTIAL CLEARING LATE AFTN TO WRN ZONES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...12Z MODELS CONSISTENT WITH THEIR EWD PROGRESSION OF THE WRN CONUS MID/UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS EXITS THE E COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN ITS PLACE ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE NWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AND SLOWLY MOVES OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THE LOCAL WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER OUR ERN ZONES THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS AROUND 50 INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.


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