Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains to the Yucatan Peninsula

By: Jeff Masters Blog Email
By: Jeff Masters Blog Email
Possible tropical development near the Yucatan Peninnsula?

This NOAA satellite image taken Wednesday, Sept. 26, 2007 at 2:15 a.m. EDT shows Tropical Depression Thirteen over southwestern Gulf of Mexico, about 165 miles southeast of Tampico, Mexico. It is supporting thunderstorm development over the Yucatan Peninsula. Farther east, another are of showers and thunderstorms are developing over southern Florida, western Cuba and the western Bahamas. Over the nation, a cold front with scattered showers and thunderstorms extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to the Southern Plains. (AP PHOTO/WEATHER UNDERGROUND)

An area of disturbed weather associated with a large area of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean Sea. This is not a reincarnation of Tropical Depression 16, but does have some of the moisture from that storm. The intensity and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorms in the disturbance has slowly increased over the past day (Figure 1). Wind shear is a high 20 knots, and is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next four days. This may allow some slow development of the disturbance. None of the computer models develop the disturbance, and NHC is giving it a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. A slow west-northwestward motion across the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to begin by Wednesday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains of 3-6 inches to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan over the next three days.

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