Weather Local AL/FL/GA Outlook Sep 24 Afternoon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl
346 Pm Edt Fri Sep 24 2010

Synopsis...The Long Wave Pattern Continues To Evolve As
Anticipated...At Least In The Mid Latitudes. A Potent Short Wave Is
Moving Ewd Across The Upper Lakes And Is In The Process Of
Flattening The Upper Ridge That Has Been Dominating Weather Locally
For Some Time. The Surface Ridge Is Also Weakening. A Cold Front Is
Moving Sewd Across The Mid Ms Valley And Great Lakes States. The 12z Ktae Sounding Shows Substantial Moistening Of The Column And We Are Seeing Better Convective Development This Afternoon...Particularly Along The Sea Breeze.

Short Term...Tonight Through Sun Night.
The Long Awaited Pattern Change Is About To Commence. The Great
Lakes Short Wave Is Paving The Way For Upstream Energy Over The Nrn High Plains Near The Canadian Border To Carve Out A Substantial
Trough Over The Ern U.S. This Trough Will Cut Off Over The Mid Ms
Valley On Sun And Be Centered Near Memphis Tn By 12z Mon. At Least
Through These Time Periods...We Are Seeing Much Better Model
Consensus With The Evolution Of This System Than We Did In Recent
Days. The Cold Front Will Make Progress Into The Tn Valley In The
First Half Of The Weekend...But Will Then Pull Up Stationary As A
Wave Low Pressure Develops On It Near The Central Al/Ms Border Sun
Night In Response To The Deepening Upper Level Low. Rain Chances
Will Continue To Steadily Increase Across The Forecast Area As We
Move Through The Weekend With Diurnal Temp Ranges Diminishing As The Moisture Increases.

For Tonight...We Show Slight Chance Pops Most Areas With Higher Pops Over The Sern Fl Big Bend And Ern Gulf Waters. Min Temps Will Be Within A Degree Or Two Of 70. For Sat...Pops Will Increase To 50
Across Most Of The Forecast Area. This Increased Coverage And Cloud Cover Should Hold Temps A Few Degrees Lower Than Today. Thought The Mav Numbers Were Too High And Blended In A Bit Of The Much Cooler Met Numbers For This Forecast. For Sun...Increased Pops To Likely Across The Board As Moisture Lifts Nwd From The Gulf Ahead Of The Low...And Upper Level Forcing Increases. Max Temps Will Be Held In The Mid 80s For The Most Part. All In All...Some Much Needed Rainfall Is On Tap For The Weekend.

Concerning The Tropics...Ts Matthew Is Now Progged By Nhc To Fizzle
Out Over The Landmass Of Central America And Srn Mexico And Will Not Impact The U.S. The Next Caribbean System May However Eventually Impact Some Part Of Fl Next Week (See Below)...But Since This System Has Yet To Actually Develop...Confidence In That Forecast Is Quite Low.

Long Term...Mon Through Next Fri.
A Challenging Forecast Is In Store For Next Week As A Strong Closed
Low Digs Into The Region Early In The Week With Tropical Cyclone
Matthew Progged To Be Somewhere In The Vicinity Of Belize Or The
Yucatan Peninsula. Regardless Of What Happens In The Tropics...The
Strong Closed Low Will Help To Advect Moisture Out Of The Gulf And
Provide An Increased Chance For Showers And Thunderstorms On Monday. Bumped Up Pops A Bit From The Previous Forecast And Now Show 50 Percent Across The Board For Monday. By Tuesday Models Are In A Little Better Agreement In Pushing The Frontal Boundary Through The Area With Drier Conditions. Pops Range From 20 Percent Over The Western Half Of The Area To 30 Percent Over The Eastern Half.

By Wednesday And Beyond The Forecast Becomes Much More Dependent On What Happens To Our South In The Caribbean. Most Of The Available Guidance And The Nhc Official Forecast Take Matthew Into Central America Or The Yucatan...But Several Models Also Develop Another System Over The Western Caribbean And Push That System North-Northeastward. The 00z Gfs Is Among The Slowest With This System...Placing It Over Western Cuba Thursday Night. The Ggem Is Fastest...Placing It Off The East Coast Of East-Central Florida By
Thursday Night. The 00z Ecmwf Is In Between...Placing It In The
Vicinity Of Southern Florida By Thursday Night. The Latest Hpc/Tpc
Coordinated Day 7 Position Is Over The Wrn Tip Of Cuba. Given That
This Feature Does Not Appear To Exist Yet And That It Is Near The
End Of The Extended Period...Confidence On This Evolution Is Very
Low And Will Not Show Any Direct Affects From It This Far North At
This Time.

Marine...Tonight Through Wed.
Winds Will Increase Once Again Tonight In This Ely Flow Regime...But
We Would Be Hard Pressed To Call It A Surge...10 To 15 Kt At Best.
After Tonight...Winds Will Begin To Gradually Veer And Will Be Out
Of The Se And Then S By Sun. Winds Will Shift Ot Offshore By Mon
Night And Could Increase To Exercise Caution Levels By The Time We
See And Actual Cold Fropa By Midweek.

Aviation...Through 18z Sat.
Vfr Conditions Expected To Prevail Through Today. Radar Imagery Is
Showing Scattered Showers Developing Along The Panhandle Coast...But These Look To Be Already Inland From Ecp...So No Need For Any Mention There. Overnight...Models Again Indicate Another Round Of Mvfr/Ifr Conditions At Most Sites. Will Again Be More Optimistic Tonight And Indicate Only Ifr At Vld. Increasing Mid And Upper Level Cloud Cover Will Be The Main Limiting Factor For Fog Formation Overnight. Will Also Begin To Watch Rain Chances Increase On Saturday And Have Introduced Mention Of Mvfr Shra At Ecp Around
The End Of The 18z Taf Cycle.

Fire Weather...With Increasing Moisture Levels...Red Flag
Conditions Are Not Anticipated Over The Weekend And Into Early Next

Hydrology...Please Refer To The Latest (Sep 20) Drought Information
Statement Issued By This Office On The Developing Drought Across Wrn Portions Of The Forecast Area.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 71 90 70 86 71 / 20 50 40 70 50
Panama City Nw 72 90 71 87 71 / 20 50 40 70 50
Dothan 70 90 69 86 68 / 20 50 40 70 50
Albany 70 91 70 86 68 / 20 40 30 70 60
Valdosta 69 90 69 86 70 / 20 40 30 60 50
Cross City 72 88 71 87 71 / 40 50 40 60 50
Apalachicola 73 87 72 85 72 / 20 50 40 70 50

TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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