Tropical Storm Matthew Hitting Central America Later Today

Tropical Storm Matthew Advisory Number 5...Corrected
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al152010
1100 Am Edt Fri Sep 24 2010

...Matthew Heading Toward Central America In A Hurry...

Summary Of 1100 Am Edt...1500 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...14.4n 82.2w
About 80 Mi...125 Km Ese Of Cabo Gracias A Dios On Nic/Hon Border
Maximum Sustained Winds...50 Mph...85 Km/Hr
Present Movement...W Or 275 Degrees At 20 Mph...32 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...1001 Mb...29.56 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

The Governments Of Honduras And Nicaragua Have Replaced The
Hurricane Warning From Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua To Limon
Honduras...Including The Offshore Islands...With A Tropical Storm
Warning And A Hurricane Watch.

The Government Of Belize Has Replaced The Hurricane Watch For The
Coast Of Belize With A Tropical Storm Watch.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua Northward To The Border With
Honduras...Including The Offshore Islands
* The Coast Of Honduras...Including The Offshore Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* The Coast Of Belize

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For
* Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua To Limon Honduras

A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible
Within The Watch Area...In This Case Within 12 To 24 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area...In This Case Within
12 To 24 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...Generally Within 48 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Am Edt...1500 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Matthew Was
Located Near Latitude 14.4 North...Longitude 82.2 West. Matthew Has
Increased Its Forward Speed And Is Now Moving Toward The West Near 20 Mph...32 Km/Hr. This General Motions Is Expected To Continue
During The Next Day Or So With A Gradual Decrease In Forward Speed.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Matthew Is Expected To Be
Near Or Over Northeastern Nicaragua And Eastern Honduras This
Afternoon And Then Move Over Northern Honduras Tonight And
Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph...85 Km/Hr...With Higher
Gusts. Some Slight Strengthening Could Occur Before Landfall But
Thereafter...Weakening Is Forecast.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140 Miles...220 Km
To The North Of The Center.

Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force Plane Was 1001
Mb...29.56 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Coast
Within The Tropical Storm Warning Area In The Next Few Hours.

Storm Surge...A Storm Surge Is Expected To Produce Some Coastal
Flooding Near And To The North Of Where The Center Of Matthew Makes Landfall. Near The Coast...The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Large And Dangerous Waves.

Rainfall...Matthew Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations
Of 6 To 10 Inches Over Portions Of Nicaragua And Honduras...With
Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 Inches Possible. These Rainfall
Totals May Produce Life Threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...200 Pm Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...500 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Matthew Discussion Number 5
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al152010
1100 Am Edt Fri Sep 24 2010

An Air Force Plane Investigating Matthew This Morning Found That The
Tropical Cyclone Has Not Become Any Stronger. Easterly Shear Has
Kept The Low-Level Center Near The Northeast Edge Of A Round Blob
Of Very Deep Convection As Indicated By The Air Force Plane And
Microwave Data. Satellite Intensity Estimates Support An Initial
Intensity Of 45 Knots...But Data From The Reconnaissance Plane So
Far Suggest That This Estimate Could Be Generous. Matthew Only Has
12 Hours Or Less To Strengthen Before Landfall...And Given That The
Environment Is Only Marginally Favorable For Intensification Due To
Shear...The Official Forecast No Longer Forecast Matthew To Become
A Hurricane.

The Cyclone Has Increased Its Forward Speed And The Best Estimate Of The Initial Motion Is Toward The West Or 275 Degrees At 17 Knots.
Matthew Is Embedded Within A Strong Deep Easterly Flow And There Is
High Confidence In The Forecast That The Cyclone Will Continue
Westward Over Central America For The Next Day Or Two. Beyond Two Days...Models Show Different Scenarios And The Forecast Becomes Highly Uncertain. The Most Likely Scenario Is That The Mid-Level Center Continues Westward And Dissipates...While The Low-Level Circulation Weakens And Becomes Part Of A Nearly Stationary Broad Area Of Low Pressure Over Central America. Such A Weather Pattern Would Likely Produce Dangerous Torrential Rains In Central America Over The Next Few Days.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 24/1500z 14.4n 82.2w 45 Kt
12hr Vt 25/0000z 14.6n 84.2w 35 Kt...Inland
24hr Vt 25/1200z 15.4n 86.5w 30 Kt...Inland
36hr Vt 26/0000z 16.0n 89.0w 30 Kt...Inland
48hr Vt 26/1200z 17.0n 90.0w 25 Kt...Inland
72hr Vt 27/1200z 18.0n 90.5w 20 Kt...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
96hr Vt 28/1200z 18.5n 90.5w 20 Kt...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
120hr Vt 29/1200z 18.5n 90.5w 20 Kt...Post-Trop/Remnt Low

Forecaster Avila


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