Tropical Storm Lisa Slightly Stronger But Going Nowhere Slowly

Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 15
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al142010
1100 Am Ast Fri Sep 24 2010

...Lisa Strengthens Some As It Moves Northward...

Summary Of 1100 Am Ast...1500 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.9n 27.8w
About 320 Mi...515 Km Nw Of The Cape Verde Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph...75 Km/Hr
Present Movement...N Or 360 Degrees At 7 Mph...11 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...1000 Mb...29.53 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Am Ast...1500 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Lisa Was
Located Near Latitude 18.9 North...Longitude 27.8 West. Lisa Is
Moving Toward The North Near 7 Mph...11 Km/Hr. This General Motion
Is Forecast To Continue Through Today...With A Turn Toward The
North-Northwest Expected On Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph...85 Km/Hr...With Higher
Gusts. Some Fluctuations In Strength Will Be Possible During The
Next 24 Hours. However...Lisa Is Expected To Weaken To A Tropical
Depression By Sunday Morning As The Cyclone Moves Over Cooler
Water.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 40 Miles...65 Km
From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1000 Mb...29.53 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
None.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...500 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 15
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al142010
1100 Am Ast Fri Sep 24 2010

Satellite Imagery During The Past 6 Hours Indicates That Deep
Convection Has Continued To Develop And Now Wraps About
Three-Fourths Of The Way Around The Center. Cloud Tops Have Cooled To Near -80c Just North Of The Center...And Visible And Microwave Imagery Have Been Hinting Of A Banding-Eye Feature Trying To Form.

The Initial Intensity Of 40 Kt Is Based On A Blend Of Satellite
Intensity Estimates Of T2.5/35 Kt From Tafb...Tafb Aodt Estimates
Of T3.4/53 Kt...And Uw-Cimss 3-Hr Average Adt Estimates Of T3.4/53
Kt. A 24/1146z Ascat Overpass Showed 33-Kt Winds East Of The
Center...But There Is Probably Some Under Sampling Occurring Due To
The Very Small Size Of The Inner-Core Circulation. Therefore...It
Is Possible That Lisa Could Be A Little Stronger Than Analyzed.

Satellite Microwave And Conventional Fixes Indicate Lisa Is Now
Moving At About 360/06. The General Motion Should Be Northward For
The Next 24-36 Hours As Lisa Moves Around The Western Periphery Of The Saharan Subtropical Ridge. As Lisa Moves Over Colder Water And Encounters Moderate To Strong Westerly Shear Ahead Of A Shortwave Trough...The Low-Level And Upper-Level Circulations Are Expected To Decouple. As A Result... The Low-Level Circulation Is Forecast To Move North-Northwestward Or Northwestward As A Remnant Low Pressure System In 48-72 Hours. The Nhc Forecast Track Is Adjusted Rightward Toward The Model Consensus...But Is Still Along The Left Side Of The Guidance Envelope.

While It Is Possible That Lisa Could Intensify More Than Forecast
Based On Recent Satellite Trends...This Cyclone Has Had A Long
History Of Appearing To Get Stronger...Only To Have The Cyclone
Ingest Dry Air Nearby That Has Caused The Inner-Core Convection To
Weaken And Sometimes Even Dissipate. By 24 Hours...Lisa Is Forecast
To Move Over Cooler Ssts Below 26c And Encounter Vertical Wind
Shear Of 20-40 Kt. These Negative Factors Should Induce Steady
Weakening And Possible Dissipation In 96-120 Hours. The Official
Intensity Forecast Is Similar To The Previous Advisory And Is A
Little Lower Than All Of The Objective Intensity Forecast Guidance.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 24/1500z 18.9n 27.8w 40 Kt
12hr Vt 25/0000z 19.8n 27.9w 40 Kt
24hr Vt 25/1200z 21.2n 28.2w 35 Kt
36hr Vt 26/0000z 22.9n 28.6w 35 Kt
48hr Vt 26/1200z 24.3n 29.0w 30 Kt
72hr Vt 27/1200z 26.5n 29.8w 25 Kt...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
96hr Vt 28/1200z 28.0n 30.5w 20 Kt...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
120hr Vt 29/1200z...Dissipated

Forecaster Stewart


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