Weather Southern AL Outlook Sep 24 Midday

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
542 Am Cdt Fri Sep 24 2010

Short Term (Today And Tonight)...The Upper Pattern Will Begin To
Transition Today As The Persistent Upper Ridge Over The
Southeastern States Begins To Break Down. As The Upper Ridge Weakens Today Into Tonight...The Resultant Subsidence Will Also Decrease.

Meanwhile An East To Southeast Flow Will Allow Moisture Levels To
Continue To Increase Across The Central Gulf Coast. The Weaker
Subsidence Combined With Increasing Moisture Levels Will Allow For A
Slightly Better Chance Of Shower And Thunderstorm Development
Especially Across The Southern Third Of The Area Closer To Better
Deep Layer Moisture Levels. High Temperatures This Afternoon Will
Again Range From About 6 To 10 Degrees Above Normal For This Time Of The Year...Climbing Into The Lower 90s North Of I-10...And Around 90 Degrees South Of I-10. Tonight Will Also Be 5 To 10 Degrees Above
Normal For Most Locations...Generally Ranging From 65 To 70 Degrees
Over Inland Areas...And From 70 To 75 Degrees Coastal Areas.

Long Term (Saturday Through Thursday)...A Large Change In The Pattern Over The Region Is Expected Through The Long Term Fcst Period. A 594dm High Centered Just Off The Carolina Coast This Morning Will Shift Into The Central Atlantic Over The Next Couple Of Days As A Powerful Shortwave Dives Into The Northern Plains And Evolves Into A Cut Off Upper Low Over The Eastern Plains.

As Upper Trof Deepens...A Sfc Cold Front Is Expected To Move Into The Southeast States Today...And Into Our Fcst Area Late Tonight And Saturday. Precipitable Water Values Are Expected To Be In The 1.5 To Near 2.O Inches As The Frontal Boundary Drops South Into The Region. This Should Be Sufficient To Bring A Greatly Increased Chance Of Pcpn To The Region Over The Weekend And Into The Early Part Of Next Week.

With The Sfc Boundary Settling Across The Fcst Area Over The Weekend...Have Maintained The Previous Trend Of Keeping A Rain Chance In The Fcst During The Overnight Hours.

The Upper Level Cut Off System Swinging Into The Eastern States Develops A Surface Low On The Frontal Boundary Over The Southeast States By Sunday Night...But There Continues To Be A
Fair Amount Of Uncertainty Regarding The Development And Movement Of This Feature. Both The Gfs And Ecmwf Drop The Upper Low To Near The Tennessee Valley Region By Late Monday Then Lifts It Northeast Away From The Area Tuesday Through Thursday. As This Occurs...Deep Upper Level Trof Remains Over The Southeastern States...Pushing The Sfc Cold Front South Of The Fcst Area During The Middle Part Of The Week...Bringing Much Drier And Cooler Air To The Region.

The Risk Of Severe Weather Continues To Be Low With The Slow Passage Of The Front Due To Minimal Shear And Marginal Capes. Temperatures Will Be Moderated Somewhat Over The Weekend By Increasing Cloud Cover...But Still Be Several Degrees Above Seasonable Levels. As The Front Moves South Of
The Fcst Area Tuesday Through Thursday Of Next Week...More Seasonable Temperatures Are In Store With Highs In The Middle 80s And Lows In The Upper 50s And Lower 60s.

Tropical Storm Matthew...Currently Over The Central Caribbean Sea...Should Remain Well South Of The Fcst Area Through The End Of The Period.

Aviation (12z Issuance)...Patchy Fog Will Quickly Dissipate After
Sunrise This Morning With Vfr Conditions Expected Through Most Of
The Remainder Of The Period. Isolated To Scattered Showers And
Thunderstorms Are Expected To Develop During The Afternoon
Hours...But Confidence On Coverage And Location Is Not High Enough
To Include In The Taf At This Time And Will Opt To Mention Cb Only
At This Time.

Marine...Surface High Pressure Across The Western Atlantic Will
Maintain A Light To Moderate East To Southeast Wind Over The Area
Today. A Weak Cold Front Will Stall North Of The Coast On Saturday
Before Moving East Of The Marine Area On Monday. Southerly Flow
Ahead Of The Front Late In The Weekend Will Become Northerly In The
Wake Of The Front On Monday.

Fire Weather...High Pressure Over The Region Weakens Through
Saturday As A Low Pressure System Develops Over The Southeastern
States. Gulf Moisture Returns To The Region Through The Weekend
Along With A Chance For Showers And Thunderstorms. Afternoon
Relative Humidities Will Remain Above Critical Levels Through
Sunday.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Mobile 90 71 90 70 / 30 20 50 30
Pensacola 90 73 89 72 / 30 20 50 40
Destin 89 76 86 74 / 30 20 50 50
Evergreen 92 67 92 67 / 20 20 40 40
Waynesboro 93 66 90 66 / 20 20 30 40
Camden 93 67 92 66 / 20 20 40 50
Crestview 91 68 91 68 / 30 20 50 50

MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Al...None.
Fl...None.
Ms...None.
Gm...None.


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