Weather Central AL Outlook Sep 24 Midday

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Al
1040 Am Cdt Fri Sep 24 2010

.Update...Mesoscale Discussion.

Discussion...Deeper Moisture Is Beginning To Work Its Way Back
Into Alabama As Winds Have Become Southerly Through 700 Mb.
Surface Dewpoints Are Also A Few Degrees Higher This Morning Than 24 Hours Ago. However...Drier Air Aloft Will Mix Downward And Cause Dewpoints To Drop During The Afternoon...But Not As Dramatic As Yesterday As Bmx Sounding Has More Moisture Above The Boundary Layer. With Upper Ridge Weakening Across Area And Deeper Moisture Over Southeast Alabama...Isolated Convection Possible For Areas South Of I-20 And East Of I-65.

Aviation...12z Taf Discussion.

Vfr Conditions Are Expected Over The Next 24 Hours. Prevailing
Winds Will Be From The South Around 5 Knots During The Day...Calm
Overnight.

Fire Weather...

Relative Humidity Values Are Expected To Be A Little Higher Today
With The Lowest Being Mid 30s Across Some Of The Nw Portions Of
C Al...Elsewhere Into The 40s. Much Higher Rh Values Are Expected
As We Move Into The Weekend As Rain Chances Increase. Rain Is
Greatly Needed As An Agricultural Drought Has Started To Grip
Much Of Central Alabama Making The Fuel Moisture Rather Low. In
Addition...A Fire Alert Was Issued By The Alabama Forestry
Commission Recently For All Of Central Alabama.

Bmx Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Al
600 Am Cdt Fri Sep 24 2010

Discussion...

Changes Are A Brewin Today As A Cold Front Over The C U.S. Will
Approach The Nrn Edge Of Al By Late This Afternoon Into The Early
Evening. A Few Isolated Showers And Tstorms Are Possibly This
Afternoon...More Diurnally Driven...But The Main Show Remains
Over The Weekend Into Early Next Week. Temperatures Are Once Again Expected To Be Very Warm But Maybe A Degree Lower With Our High To The E And Possibly More Cloud Cover.

Temperatures Are Expected To Be Only A Tad Lower For Highs Sat As Will Have Enough Time To Heat Up Before Front Moves Through. In Addition...Tsra Activity Is Expected To Only Be Scattered In Nature Due More To Heating And Focused Slightly Better Along The Front. Although Looking At Improved Rain Chances With Onset Of Front For Sat...Heavy Rainfall Is Not Anticipated With The Front. However...Also Not Expecting To Clear Out After The Front As Well. As An Upper Level System Is Expected To Keep Rainfall Chances Around For Much Longer.

With Upper Low To Take More Time To Move Through This Will Keep
Very Decent Rain Chances Around For The Latter Part Of The Weekend
Into The Beginning Of The Work Week. With This Activity Around The
Base Of The Main Low Could See Some Heavy Rainfall. Although
Isolated Locally Very Heavy Rainfall Could Not Rule Out Flash
Flooding. However...We Have Been Very Dry Lately And It Will Take
Quite A Lot Of Rain To Overcome Our Rainfall Deficit So Most Rain
Received Will Be Welcome.

Computer Models Are Somewhat Better In Agreement Than Yesterday In That Both Gfs And Euro Dip The Low Sewd From The Upper Ms Rvr Valley Toward The Tn Valley. However...Gfs Still Takes It Further Swd. Then Both Move It To The Ne Initially. The Euro Does Have A Secondary Lobe Which Lingers Around The South Longer But Does Not Show The Moisture That Yesterdays Gfs Showed Lingering. With This Said...The Drier Scenario By Late Tue Is Coming Together With More Confidence Over Al.

However...All Is Not Done Yet. There Is Still Much Uncertainty
With Our Extended Forecast As To The Tropics. With Disagreement
Over Caribbean Ts Matthiew And His Track Or If A Separate Low Will
Form Further Ewd That Could Possibly Move Nwd To The Se U.S. Is
Still Uncertain. It Does Look Like Moisture Of Some Kind Will Move
Across The Se. For Now With Much Uncertainty...Only Have Low Pops
Across The Se...Ie...I-85 Corridor And Swd...For Thu For Any
Periphery Moisture That Could Affect Us.

As For Temperatures Post Front. Welcome Fall...This Way Please.
Much Cooler Temperatures Are In Store...Some Thanks To The Front
And Some Due To Increased Cloud Cover And Rain Chances.
However...Somewhat Cooler Readings Should Stick Around Nonetheless As In Our Far Extended Another Front Approaches By Next Weekend To Hopefully Keep The Extreme Heat Gone For Hopefully Awhile.

Aviation...12z Taf Discussion.

Vfr Conditions Are Expected Over The Next 24 Hours. Prevailing
Winds Will Be From The South Around 5 Knots During The Day...Calm
Overnight.

Fire Weather...

Relative Humidity Values Are Expected To Be A Little Higher Today
With The Lowest Being Mid 30s Across Some Of The Nw Portions Of
C Al...Elsewhere Into The 40s. Much Higher Rh Values Are Expected
As We Move Into The Weekend As Rain Chances Increase. Rain Is
Greatly Needed As An Agricultural Drought Has Started To Grip
Much Of Central Alabama Making The Fuel Moisture Rather Low. In
Addition...A Fire Alert Was Issued By The Alabama Forestry
Commission Recently For All Of Central Alabama.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Gadsden 92 63 90 63 82 / 10 20 30 50 70
Anniston 91 64 92 66 83 / 20 20 30 50 70
Birmingham 93 69 91 68 84 / 10 20 30 50 70
Tuscaloosa 94 66 93 66 87 / 10 20 30 40 60
Calera 92 65 91 67 84 / 20 20 30 50 60
Auburn 91 68 90 69 83 / 20 20 30 40 60
Montgomery 93 67 92 69 87 / 20 20 30 50 60
Troy 92 65 92 69 87 / 20 20 40 40 60

BMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.


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