Weather Local AL/FL/GA Outlook Sep 24 Midday

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl
924 Am Edt Fri Sep 24 2010

Discussion...The Deep Layer Ridging That Has Dominated Our Weather
For Some Time Is Definitely Weakening Today. The Upper Ridge Is
Being Flattened By A Short Wave Trough That Is Crossing The Upper Ms Valley And Wrn Great Lakes. This Will Eventually Pave The Wave For A More Subtle Upstream Short Wave To Carve Out A Substantial Trough Over The Ms Valley...Which Many Of The Models Cut Off By Sun.

Back To Today...Surface Analysis Shows The Ridge Is Still In Place Across The Sern States...But Slightly Weaker Than Yesterday. With The
Weakening Of The Ridge...Deep Layer Moisture Is Increasing With The
Pw Now Up To 1.80 Inches On The 12z Ktae Sounding. This Is In The
75th Percentile Of The Pw Typically Observed This Time Of Year. We
Therefore Expect A Bit More Coverage Of Showers And Storms Today.
Regional Radars Show Nwwd Moving Showers Over The Gulf Coastal
Waters And A Few Of These Have Brushed The Panhandle Coast Around Aaf And Cape San Blas. By This Afternoon...The Pop Forecast Is Well Coordinated And Ranges From 40 Se To 20 From Tlh Nwd.

No Changes To The Forecast Will Be Necessary This Morning. It Will Be Another Hot Day And This Month Remains On Track To Be The 2nd Hottest September On Record. This Will Be The 5th Consecutive Month That Has Finished In The Top 5 Hottest On Record...And 3rd Consecutive In The Top 3.

Marine...High Pressure Will Weaken Through Sat With Diminishing
Winds And Seas. Tonights Nocturnal Surge Will Be Weaker Than Last
Nights As The Gradient Weakens. By Sat Night Into Sun...Southerly
Flow Will Begin To Increase As Low Pressure Develops Over Al. A Cold
Front May Move Through The Waters By Early Next Week Resulting In
Stronger Offshore Flow.

Aviation...Through 12z Sat.
No Restrictions Observed This Morning As It Appears Some Mid Level
Cloud Cover Stretching From Dhn To Vld Limited Fog Formation. Only
Isold-Sct Tsra Expected To Develop This Afternoon...Again Most
Likely Confined To Areas South Of Vld.

Fire Weather...Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected For The Next
Several Days.

Hydrology...Please Refer To The Latest (Sep 20) Drought Information
Statement Issued By This Office On The Developing Drought Across Wrn Portions Of The Forecast Area.

Prev Discussion...
339 Am Edt Fri Sep 24 2010

Short Term (Today Through Sunday)...The Upper Pattern Across The
Eastern U.S. Will Undergo A Substantial Transformation Over The Next
72 Hours. The Persistent Southeastern Ridge Will Begin To Break Down
Later Today As A Ridge Over The Western States Begin To Amplify. As
The Western Ridge Continues To Amplify Friday Night Into
Saturday...A Strong Short Wave Is Forecast To Dive Down The Eastern
Side Of The Ridge And Carve Out A Deep Trough/Upper Low Into The
Lower Mississippi Valley By Saturday Afternoon Into Sunday.

As The Ridge Collapses...Large Scale Subsidence Should Gradually
Decrease With East To Southeast Low-Level Flow Providing An
Attendant Increase In Moisture. This Will Lead To An Uptick In
Pops Through Saturday Across The Region. The Best Deep Moisture
Appears To Be Over The Southeastern Zones And Will Have Highest
Pops There. Pops Will Range From 20s In The North To 30s In The
Southeast Today. For Saturday...Pops Will Range From 40s In The
North To 60s In The Southeast.

By Sunday...The Digging Upper Trough/Low May Begin To Interact
With A Lingering Sfc Front Across Central Al/Ga. Guidance Is In
General Agreement In Showing Weak Cyclogenesis Along The Front
Across Alabama. Depending On The Location And Strength Of This
Low And The Southerly Flow To Its Southeast Across The Cwa...There
Could Be A More Widespread Rain Event For Sunday. Given The
Uncertainty With The Developing Pattern...Have Gone With 50
Percent Pops Across The Board For Sunday. This May Need To Be
Adjusted Upward With Subsequent Forecasts.

Long Term (Sunday Night Through Next Friday)...
A Challenging Forecast Is In Store For Next Week As A Strong Closed
Low Digs Into The Region Early In The Week With Tropical Cyclone
Matthew Progged To Be Somewhere In The Vicinity Of Belize Or The
Yucatan Peninsula. Regardless Of What Happens In The Tropics...The
Strong Closed Low Will Help To Advect Moisture Out Of The Gulf And
Provide An Increased Chance For Showers And Thunderstorms On Monday.

Bumped Up Pops A Bit From The Previous Forecast And Now Show 50
Percent Across The Board For Monday. By Tuesday Models Are In A
Little Better Agreement In Pushing The Frontal Boundary Through The
Area With Drier Conditions. Pops Range From 20 Percent Over The
Western Half Of The Area To 30 Percent Over The Eastern Half.

By Wednesday And Beyond The Forecast Becomes Much More Dependent On What Happens To Our South In The Caribbean. Most Of The Available Guidance And The Nhc Official Forecast Take Matthew Into Central America Or The Yucatan...But Several Models Also Develop Another System Over The Western Caribbean And Push That System North-Northeastward. The 00z Gfs Is Among The Slowest With This System...Placing It Over Western Cuba Thursday Night. The Ggem Is Fastest...Placing It Off The East Coast Of East-Central Florida By
Thursday Night. The 00z Ecmwf Is In Between...Placing It In The
Vicinity Of Southern Florida By Thursday Night. Given That This
Feature Does Not Appear To Exist Yet And That It Is Near The End Of
The Extended Period...Confidence On This Evolution Is Very Low And
Will Not Show Any Direct Affects From It This Far North At This
Time.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 91 72 91 71 88 / 20 20 50 30 50
Panama City 89 73 87 73 87 / 30 20 50 30 50
Dothan 92 70 92 69 89 / 20 10 40 20 50
Albany 92 70 92 70 89 / 20 10 40 20 50
Valdosta 90 70 90 69 88 / 30 10 50 20 50
Cross City 89 71 89 70 89 / 40 20 60 30 50
Apalachicola 87 75 86 74 85 / 40 20 50 30 50

TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Al...None.
Ga...None.
Fl...None.
Gm...None.


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