Severe T-Storm US Outlook Sep 27-Oct 01

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
0336 Am Cdt Fri Sep 24 2010

Valid 271200z - 021200z

...Discussion...
Models Are In General Agreement With Bringing A Relatively Deep
Closed Low Ewd Out Of The Lower Ms Valley Ewd Across The Tn Valley And Into The Srn Appalachians On Mon/D4. At Least Weak Instability Should Develop Ahead Of The Cold Front As It Moves Ewd Across Al...Ga...And Into The Carolinas Mon Night And Into Tue/D5. Moderate Deep Layer Flow Fields Will Exist With 50+ Kts At 500 Mb. Given The Forecast Geometry Of The System...Little In The Way Of Cyclogenesis Is Expected...And This May Tend To Result In Veered Low Level Flow/Unidirectional Wind Profiles. In Addition...Widespread
Precipitation And Cloudiness Will Likely Precede The Cold Front
Which Will Limit Destabilization. It Would Appear The Primary Severe
Threat Would Lie Along The Cold Front With Any Linear Structures
Producing Damaging Winds. Day To Day Model Trends Suggest
Predictability Is Currently Too Low For Any Areas.


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