Severe T-Storm US Outlook Sep 26

Day 3 Convective Outlook
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
0221 Am Cdt Fri Sep 24 2010

Valid 261200z - 271200z

The Primary Feature Of Interest On Sunday Will Be A Deep Upper
Trough Forecast To Close Off Across The Mid Ms Valley And Drift Swd Through The Period. Significant Model Differences Still Exist With
The Evolution Of This System...Both In Regard To Speed Of Movement
As Well As Strength Of Wind Fields Surrounding The Upper Low.

Model Consensus Is For A Weak Surface Low To Form Somewhere Over Nrn Ms/Al Or Perhaps Into Middle Tn Sunday Afternoon. This Will Be Along An Existing E-W Frontal Boundary Extending From Nrn La Into Cntrl Ga Near A Back Door Front. A Stronger/Deep Cold Front Should Surge Swd Across The Lower Ms Valley. Ahead Of The Cold Front...The Air Mass Will Not Be Particularly Moist With Dewpoints Only Averaging In The Mid To Upper 60s F Over The Warm Sector. Numerous Showers And Storms Are Expected Across The Entire Region Through The Period As Low Level Warm Advection Gradually Increases...Both Ahead Of And N Of The Cold Fronts. Although Isolated Marginally Severe Hail Or Wind May Occur...Will Not Introduce Any Severe Probabilities At This Time Due To Model Uncertainty.

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