Severe T-Storm US Outlook Sep 25

Day 2 Convective Outlook
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
1209 Am Cdt Fri Sep 24 2010

Valid 251200z - 261200z

...No Svr Tstm Areas Forecast...

...Synopsis...
A Broad Upper Trough Will Extend From The Nrn High Plains Ewd Into
New England Sat Morning...With A Strong Embedded Shortwave Digging Swd Across The Nrn Plains. At The Surface...A Cold Front Will Extend Swwd From The New England Shortwave Into The Tn Valley And Wwd Along The Red River. The Wrn Portion Of This Front Will Extend Nwwd Into Swrn Ks...Where It Will Become A Warm Front After Sunrise. Behind The Front...A Surface Ridge Will Exist Along The Middle And Upper Ms Valley.

Another Cold Front Will Extend From The Ern Dakotas Into Nwrn Ks At
The Start Of The Period...And Will Surge Sewd As The Aforementioned Shortwave Deepens Through The Period And Ending Over Srn Mo By Sunday Morning.

...Ern Neb...Nern Ks...Far Sw Ia And Nwrn Mo...
Elevated Convection Is Likely To Be Ongoing Across This Area At The
Start Of The Period...Where The Nose Of A 50+ Kt Low Level Jet Will
Be Enhancing Lift Beneath Steepening Mid Level Lapse Rates. Given
The Preceding Frontal Passage A Day Earlier...Moisture With This
System Will Be Limited With Only Mid To Upper 50s Dewpoints. Some Of The Early Activity May Contain Large Hail As Forcing And Shear Will
Both Be Favorable For Sustained Convection.

As The Cold Front And Trough Progress Sewd...Some Daytime Heating Will Occur But The Moist Sector Will Become Increasingly Narrow. Therefore...The Bulk Of The Severe Potential May Be Prior To
18z-21z. Hail Should Be The Main Threat But A Few Strong To Severe
Wind Gusts May Occur Once Boundary Layer Lapse Rates Steepen.
Additional Thunder Will Persist Across Mo And Into Wrn Il But
Instability Is Not Expected To Be Strong Enough For Any Severe
Threat There.


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