New Tropical Depression In Caribbean

Tropical Depression Fifteen Special Advisory Number 1
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al152010
200 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2010

...New Depression Forms Over The South-Central Caribbean Sea...
...Watches And Warnings Issued For Portions Of Central America...

Summary Of 200 Pm Edt...1800 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...13.9n 76.2w
About 485 Mi...775 Km E Of Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua
Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph...55 Km/Hr
Present Movement...W Or 280 Degrees At 15 Mph...24 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...1007 Mb...29.74 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

The Government Of Nicaragua Has Issued A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch From Puerto Cabezas Northward To The Border With Honduras...Including The Offshore Islands. The Government Of Honduras Has Issued A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch From The Nicaragua/Honduras Border Westward To Limon...Including The Offshore Islands.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For...
* Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua To Limon Honduras...Including The
Offshore Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua To Limon Honduras...Including The
Offshore Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area Within 36 Hours.

A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible
Within The Watch Area. A Watch Is Typically Issued 48 Hours
Before The Anticipated First Occurrence Of Tropical-Storm-Force
Winds...Conditions That Make Outside Preparations Difficult Or
Dangerous.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 200 Pm Edt...1800 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Depression Fifteen
Was Located Near Latitude 13.9 North...Longitude 76.2 West. The
Depression Is Moving Toward The West Near 15 Mph...24 Km/Hr...And
This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 48 Hours.
On The Forecast Track...The Center Of The Cyclone Is Expected To Be
Near The Nicaragua/Honduras Border Late Friday Or Early Saturday
Morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/Hr...With Higher
Gusts. Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours...And The
Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm Later Tonight Or Friday.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure From An Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance Aircraft Is 1007 Mb...29.74 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To First Reach The
Coast Within The Warning Area By Friday Night...Making Outside
Preparations Difficult Or Dangerous.

Storm Surge...A Storm Surge Is Expected To Produce Some Coastal
Flooding Near And To The North Of Where The Center Makes Landfall.
Near The Coast...The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Large And
Dangerous Waves.

Rainfall...The Depression Is Expected To Produce Total Rain
Accumulations Of 6 To 10 Inches Over Portions Of Nicaragua And
Honduras.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...500 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Fifteen Special Discussion Number 1
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al152010
200 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2010

An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft This Afternoon Found
That The Area Of Low Pressure Located Over The South-Central
Caribbean Sea Has Developed A Well-Defined Circulation And Winds
Sufficient To Classify This System As A Tropical Depression.

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 280/13. The Depression Is Expected To
Move West To West-Northwestward And Steadily Strengthen For The
Next 48 Hours...And Pass Over Or Near The Coasts Of Northeastern
Nicaragua And Eastern Honduras. A Hurricane Watch And A Tropical
Storm Warning Have Been Issued For These Areas.

A More Detailed Discussion Will Be Provided In The Next Complete
Advisory Issued At 2100 Utc.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 23/1800z 13.9n 76.2w 30 Kt
12hr Vt 24/0000z 14.1n 77.5w 35 Kt
24hr Vt 24/1200z 14.7n 80.3w 40 Kt
36hr Vt 25/0000z 15.4n 83.0w 50 Kt
48hr Vt 25/1200z 15.9n 85.1w 60 Kt...Inland
72hr Vt 26/1200z 16.9n 87.8w 70 Kt...Over Water
96hr Vt 27/1200z 18.0n 88.4w 70 Kt...Inland
120hr Vt 28/1200z 19.5n 87.5w 70 Kt...Inland

Forecaster Stewart


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