Weather Southern AL Outlook Sep 23 Late AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
418 Am Cdt Thu Sep 23 2010

.Short Term...For Today Through Tonight...Ridging...Surface And Aloft...Will Continue To Extend From The Western Atlantic Across The Southeast States Through Tonight. This Will Maintain The Light To Ocnly
Moderate Southeasterly Flow Over The Region...And As Over The Past
Few Days...Will Bring Just Enough Gulf Moisture Into The Area That
Daytime Heating Will Result In A Slight Chance Of Showers And
Thunderstorms (20% Or Less) Across The Region Today. Most Of The
Region Will However Remain Rain-Free Through Tonight. High
Temperatures This Afternoon Will Again Range From About 6 To 10
Degrees Above Normal For This Time Of The Year...Climbing Into The
Lower 90s North Of I-10...And Around 90 Degrees South Of I-10. Lows
Tonight Will Also Be 5 To 10 Degrees Above Normal For Most
Locations...Generally Ranging From 65 To 70 Degrees Over Inland
Areas...And From 70 To 75 Degrees Coastal Areas.

For Friday Through Saturday...With Upper Level High Pressure Off The
Carolina Coast...Stretching West Over The Southeastern Conus...
Several Pieces Of Shortwave Energy Gets Directed Westward Over The Gulf Of Mex. Also...A Strong Shortwave Moving Over The Great Lakes Regions Pushes A Front From Over The Central Plains To Just North Of The Fa. Guidance Is Moving A Slug Of Drier Air Over The Fa Today...But This Should Be Pretty Much Gone By Friday Morn. Nam/Met Is Higher With The Pops...Especially Along The Coast. By The Time The Guidance Gets To The Northern Border Of The Fa...The Gfs/Mav And Nam/Met Are In Good Agreement. With The Gfs/Mav Generally Dry...And Daily Shra/Tsra Popping Up...Am Tending To Lean Towards The Nam/Met Guidance.

Long Term...(Saturday Night On)For Saturday Night Into Monday
Morn...Guidance Has Come Into Better Agreement...With A Shortwave
Diving South Over The Plains Towards The Lower Miss River Valley.
Ecmwf Is Still A Bit Farther West Than The Gfs...But Not As Much As
Yesterday. The Risk For Severe Weather Sunday Night Into Monday Night Has Lessened A Bit...With The Best Upper Dynamics From The Upper System Being To The North Or East Of The Fa. Am Not Saying We Are Out Of The Woods Attm...Just The Risk Is Less.

Monday...Guidance Starts To Diverge...With The Gfs Advertising The
Upper System Meandering Se Towards The Fa Into Tuesday...Then
Noodling Around Over The Lower Miss River Valley As A System Moves North Over The Fl Peninsula From The Western Caribbean Tues Night Into Friday...When The Two Systems Combine And Move Off. The Ecmwf Swings The System Eastward As Another Shortwave System Moves South Over The Plains And Combines With The First And The Whole Shebang Moves Off.

The System Moving Up The Fl Peninsula Is A Bit Slower Than The
Gfs...Thus Really Doesn`T Combine With The System Over The
Conus...But Then Again...Doesn`T Really Develop Due To The Shear.

Aviation...(06z/12z Issuances)High Pressure Will Continue Over The
Eastern U.S. Next 24hrs. Patchy Late Night Fog Looks To Develop By
Daybreak With A Brief Period Of Mvfr Vsbys Possible...But Any Fog
Areas Will Quickly Burn Off This Morning. A Slight Northeasterly
Flow Is Expected Early This Morning...With Stronger Southeasterly
Flow This Afternoon And This Evening. Scattered Cu With Bases Around 3-5 Kft Will Develop Across The Region Again Today Primarily Between 15 And 23z. Some Isolated Convection Possible This Afternoon...But Coverages Far Too Widespread To Include In Terminal Forecasts.

Marine...Surface High Pressure Over The Mid Atlantic Will Create A
A Moderate East To Southeast Flow Through Late Friday...With A
Continuation Of Small Craft Exercise Caution Headlines. The Sfc
Ridge Will Break Down Saturday Through Monday As A Slow Moving Front Drops South And Becomes Nearly Stationary Along The Gulf Coast. The Pressure Gradient Will Relax Saturday Through Monday As The Front Sags Into The Area...With Lighter Southeasterly Flow Expected. Seas Up To 4 To 6 Feet At Times Through Late Tonight...Then Seas Gradually Subsiding Through The Weekend And Into The Early Part Of Next Week As Winds Decrease.

Fire Weather...No Problems Noted With Dispersions Or Rh Levels.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Mobile 90 71 89 71 89 / 20 20 30 20 30
Pensacola 90 75 88 74 88 / 20 20 30 20 30
Destin 88 76 89 74 88 / 10 20 20 10 30
Evergreen 91 66 91 67 90 / 10 10 20 10 30
Waynesboro 91 64 91 66 92 / 10 10 10 10 30
Camden 93 65 91 66 91 / 10 10 10 10 30
Crestview 91 67 90 68 91 / 10 10 20 10 30

Mob Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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