Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
THE PERSISTENT RIDGE (CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.) TO WEAKEN
AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW DIGS DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THIS FEATURE THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR LONG RANGE FORECAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
TAKES A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY FAIR
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION STALLS THIS FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST AS AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST MS THIS
WEEKEND. IT DOES NOT BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN NEVER SEEMS TO
ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT ALL. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS...NOT SO MUCH BECAUSE OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THEM...BUT BECAUSE BLENDING THE GFS AND ECMWF JUST WILL NOT WORK
BECAUSE THEY ARE SO DIFFERENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN THE MID LATITUDES...THEY ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHETHER THIS
WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


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