Southeast Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

DISCUSSION...YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF HOT AND DRY DAYS IS COMING
TO AN END ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING CU FIELDS AND JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SW. THE PUBLIC FCST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS WELL ON TRACK...AND WITH
THE DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 AT THE COAST. THE
GREATEST FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WHERE THE EASTERLY SURGE IS ALREADY OFF TO A VIGOROUS AND A BIT OF
AN EARLIER START THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WITH FULL BORE SCEC
CONDITIONS ALREADY OBSERVED AT BUOY 42039. AT 6 PM EDT...WINDS AT
THIS BUOY ARE ALREADY UP TO 15 GUSTING TO 20 KTS WITH 6.2 FT
SEAS...AND CONDITIONS ARE CLOSING IN ON SUSTAINED 15 KTS AT 42036.
ALSO...ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT HAVE A CAUTIONARY HEADLINE FOR APALACHEE
BAY...AND SEAS WILL DEFINITELY BE LIMITED BY THE SHALLOW WATER AND
VERY SHORT FETCH...PEAK WINDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 19 KTS AT KEATON
BEACH...SO SEE LITTLE REASON TO EXCLUDE THEM FROM THE SCEC HEADLINE.
THEREFORE...WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CWF AFTER THE 7 PM EDT
OBSERVATIONS HAVE COME INTO AWIPS...AND WILL THEN SEND THE COMPLETE
AFD WITH THE AVIATION SECTION A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING.


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