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Weather Southern AL Sep 22 Afternoon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
326 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 22 2010

Short Term [Tonight Through Friday Night]...An Anticyclone Over
West Atlantic Ridging Into The Piedmont Region Will Dominate The Entire
Depth Of The Atmosphere Through The Next 24 Hours Or So. This Feature Will Bring East Winds And Isolated Convective Activity Clearing
Tonight.

Elsewhere A Developing Front Approaching From Over The
Midwest In The Next 48 To 72 Hours Will Bring Increasing Convective
Coverage In The Coming Days And Over The Weekend.

Long Term [Saturday Through Tuesday]...Few Changes...The Package We Inherited Looks Real Good...But We Went Ahead And Tweaked Pops For The Weekend To Include The Reconfigured Approaching Front And New Ensemble Guidance.

Convection Coverage Over Land Needed To Be Bumped Up A Few Since This Front Has Been Sensed By Mos Predictors...And Over The Gulf We Knocked It Down A Bit For The Same Reason.

Gfs Has Determined By Sunday Pw Should Be 2 To .5 Inches And Li About -2 To -4. The Euro Is Favorable To This Scenario Happening As Well. It Is Interesting That 12z Mos Guidance Pushed Min Temps Up About 4 To 6 Degrees For Wednesday Morning. We Are Not Buying That And Will Leave It Alone For The Next Cycle To Be Determined.

Aviation [18z Taf Issuance]...Vcsh/Vcts To Persist Through Late
Afternoon Around Region...But Generally Advancing Away From The
Coastal Taf Sites Of Kmob...Kbfm And Kpns. Cig Bases As Low As
035kft Possible With Isold Showers. Just Before Sunset...Taf Site
Bases Will Become Few050. Some Mvfr Conditions Due To Fog Possible After 06z At Kmob. Otrw...Cavok Through Noon Tomorrow.

Marine...A Sprawling Mid-Atlantic Surface High Pressure System
Generates A Moderate East To Southeast Wind Flow Through Late
Thursday.

Overall...Small Craft Exercise Caution Conditions Will Persist Through The Above Mentioned Period For Winds In The 15-20 Kt
Range...And Gusty During The Afternoons. For The Next Two
Nights...Winds May Relax Closer To The Coast After Midnight A
Bit...But Winds Well Offshore Will Not. On Friday...Winds Begin To
Relax Lasting Into The Weekend As Surface High Pressure To Our East
Weakens A Bit And A Cold Front Approaches From The Northwest.
Accordingly...Seas Will Begin To Subside On Friday Through The
Weekend From Current Values Of 4-6 Feet To Near 2 Feet By Sunday.

Fire Weather...Southeast Boundary Layer Wind Will Prevail The Next
Few Days With Increasing Chances For Rain Maximizing This Weekend.
Strong Upper System Will Move Toward The Area Next Week Bringing
Strong Onshore Winds Monday And Tuesday Before Cool Air Moves Into The Region The Area Tuesday Night Into Wednesday. No Issues With Relative Humidity But A Deep Mixed Layer And Very High Dispersion Will Occur The Next Few Days.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Mobile 91 69 89 71 / 20 20 20 20
Pensacola 91 71 90 73 / 20 20 20 20
Destin 89 77 85 78 / 20 20 10 20
Evergreen 92 65 92 66 / 20 10 10 10
Waynesboro 92 65 90 66 / 10 20 10 10
Camden 93 65 92 65 / 10 10 10 10
Crestview 92 67 91 70 / 20 10 10 10

Mob Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Al...None.
Fl...None.
Ms...None.
Gm...None.


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