Weather Central AL Sep 22 Afternoon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Al
339 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 22 2010

.Discussion...

Ridging Will Continue To Dominate The Weather For The Next Couple
Days Across Central Alabama. Despite Moving Into The Fall
Season...Temperatures Will Remain In The Low To Mid 90s Each
Afternoon. Low Level Flow Will Be Out Of The Southeast So Cant
Completely Rule Out A Storm Or Two. Chances Are Too Low To Include
Any Wx At This Time.

As A Short Wave Crosses The Great Lakes...A Weak Front Will Approach Central Alabama Late Friday. The Front Will Push Into Central
Alabama Saturday Morning...Stalling Rather Quickly As The Shortwave
Pushes Further Eastward. Will Not See Much Moisture Return From The
Gulf Ahead Of This Front And Most Of The Dynamics Will Remain Well
To The North. Best Chances For Showers And Thunderstorms Will Be In
The North. With Added Cloud Cover And Rain Chances...Temperatures
Will Be In The Upper 80s To Low 90s.

There Is Good Model Consensus Between The Gfs/Dgex/Ecmwf In A Closed Low Dropping Southward Sunday Into The Mid Mississippi River Valley. The Ecmwf Is More Progressive With The System...Ejecting It
Northeastward And Into Mean Flow By Tuesday. The Gfs And Dgex
Continue To Keep The Low Over The Mo/Ar/Ok Region Through Much Of The Week. These Differences Could Spell Big Differences In The Weather Next Week. Over The Last Several Model Runs...The Ecmwf Has Slowly Trended Toward A More Gfs/Dgex Like Solution. For Now Will Take A Blend Of The Two Solutions.

Low Level Winds Will Remain Out Of The Southeast Saturday
Night...Allowing For A Slow Increase In Moisture South Of The
Stalled Front. As The Upper Low Nears The Area...Energy Rotating
Around It Will Enhance Rain And Thunderstorm Chances Beginning
Saturday Night And Last Through At Least Tuesday. The Area Needs
Several Days Of Widespread Rainfall To Prevent Drought Conditions
From Spreading. For Now...Expecting One To Two Inches Over The 4 To 5 Day Period. Although...A Band Of Heavier Rainfall Could Set Up
Anywhere Across The Area...Dropping Much Higher Amounts.

Dry Air Will Eventually Rotate Around The Low And Into The Central
Alabama...Pushing Rain Eastward. Depending On Which Model You
Favor...This Could Be As Earlier As Monday Night Or As Late As
Thursday Night. Weak Shear And Cloud Cover Will Limit The Severe
Threat With This System. Cloud Cover Will Also Serve To Keep
Afternoon Temps Slightly Cooler...With Highs In The 80s. Overnight
Lows Will Be In The 60s.

Aviation...18z Taf Discussion.

Vfr Conditions To Continue Through The Forecast Period. Cu Field
Will Continue To Develop Across Much Of The Area This
Afternoon...And Is Expected To Develop Again Tomorrow As Well. There Is A Very Small Chance Of An Isolated Shower/Storm Across The Northeastern Counties As A Shortwave Trough Swings Through The Area...But With Chances So Low Did Not Include Mention At Anb. Winds Will Generally Be Light And From The Southeast.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Gadsden 66 95 64 94 66 / 10 10 0 10 20
Anniston 67 94 66 93 65 / 10 10 0 10 10
Birmingham 70 95 68 93 67 / 10 10 10 10 20
Tuscaloosa 67 95 67 94 65 / 10 10 10 10 20
Calera 68 94 67 94 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
Auburn 70 92 68 93 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
Montgomery 70 94 68 92 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
Troy 68 93 69 92 67 / 10 10 10 10 10

BMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.


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