Tropical Storm Lisa Stuck In The Middle Of The Atlantic

Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 8
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al142010
500 Pm Ast Wed Sep 22 2010

...Lisa Meandering Over The Eastern Atlantic...

Summary Of 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...Information
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Location...17.7n 30.2w
About 425 Mi...685 Km Wnw Of The Cape Verde Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph...75 Km/Hr
Present Movement...E Or 90 Degrees At 3 Mph...6 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...1002 Mb...29.59 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
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At 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Lisa Was
Located Near Latitude 17.7 North...Longitude 30.2 West. Lisa Has
Been Meandering During The Day But Its Average Motion Is Toward The
East Near 3 Mph...6 Km/Hr. The Cyclone Is Expected To Move Little
During The Next 24 Hours But Could Begin Moving Slowly
Northwestward Thursday Night Or Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph...75 Km/Hr...With Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Possible During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 50 Miles...85 Km
From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1002 Mb...29.59 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
None.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 8
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al142010
500 Pm Ast Wed Sep 22 2010

Lisa Has A Robust Circulation...But All The Deep Convection Remains
Limited To Near The Center. The Convective Structure Has Changed
Little Over The Past Few Hour Hours...So The Initial Intensity Is
Kept At 40 Kt. Although Vertical Shear Is Light...The Cyclone Is
Surrounded By Mid-Level Dry Air And Is Located Over An Area Where
The Ocean Heat Content Is Rather Low. Therefore Only A Little
Strengthening Is Indicated In The Official Forecast During The Next
48 Hours...When Conditions Will Be Most Favorable.

Weakening Is Expected From Days 3-5 As 30-40 Kt Of West-Southwesterly Shear Develops Over The Cyclone. The Forecast Indicates Lisa Becoming A Tropical Depression By Day 5...But It Is Possible That It Could Have Degenerated To A Remnant Low Or Trough By That Time.

Lisa Has Been Meandering All Day...And The Estimated Initial Motion
Is 090/3 Based On A 12-18 Hour Average. Model Guidance Suggests
That Lisa Could Drift A Little Farther Eastward Or Southeastward
During The Next 12-24 Hours In Weak Steering Flow...But It Is
Expected To Pick Up Some Speed And Move Northwestward By 48 Hours As A Mid-Level Ridge Over Africa Builds Westward. The Track
Guidance Has Shifted To The North...And The Official Forecast Is
About 2 Degrees Farther North Than The Previous One By Day 5.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 22/2100z 17.7n 30.2w 40 Kt
12hr Vt 23/0600z 17.6n 29.9w 40 Kt
24hr Vt 23/1800z 17.8n 29.9w 45 Kt
36hr Vt 24/0600z 18.1n 30.6w 45 Kt
48hr Vt 24/1800z 18.6n 31.2w 50 Kt
72hr Vt 25/1800z 20.1n 32.7w 45 Kt
96hr Vt 26/1800z 22.0n 35.0w 40 Kt
120hr Vt 27/1800z 24.0n 38.0w 30 Kt

Forecaster Berg


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