Weather Local AL/FL/GA Outlook Sep 22 Afternoon

Short Term (Tonight Through Saturday)...Surface/Mid Level Ridging
Will Keep Its Hold On The Region Through Friday. This Will Result In
Low Chance Pops On Thursday. Models Want To Develop A Weak Wave That Would Track Along The Periphery Of The Ridge...Across The State Of Florida...From South To North On Friday. Uncertainty Exists As To How Far West This Disturbance Will Shift...Thus Have Increased Pops Slightly To Account For This Uncertainty.

On Saturday...Upper Level Support May Assist In Developing Convection Across Our Central And Eastern Cwa. Max Temps Each Day Will Be In The Low 90s Across Most Of The Region With Upper 80s Possible By The Weekend Across Our Easternmost Counties. Upper 60s For Overnight Lows Tonight Will Increase To The Low 70s By Friday Night. Overall...The Pattern Remains Dry With Above Average Temps.

.Long Term (Saturday Through Wednesday)...The Global Models Forecast The Persistent Ridge (Currently Over The Southeast U.S.) To Weaken As A Large Closed Low Digs Down Over The Central Plains This Weekend Into The First Part Of Next Week. The Ecmwf Is A Little Faster With This Feature Than The Other Guidance. These Differences Have Significant Impacts On Our Long Range Forecast.

The Ecmwf Solution Takes A Cold Front Through Our Area Tuesday...Followed By Fair Weather And Cooler Temperatures With Offshore Surface Winds Through Next Wednesday.

The Gfs Solution Stalls This Front To Our North And West As An Occluding Frontal Low Develops Over Northwest Ms This Weekend. It Does Not Bring A Cold Front Through Our Region Until The
End Of The Week. Meanwhile The Gfs Ensemble Mean Never Seems To
Allow A Frontal Passage At All.

Will Lean Toward The Gfs/Ensemble Mean Solutions...Not So Much Because Of Higher Confidence In Them...But Because Blending The Gfs And Ecmwf Just Will Not Work Because They Are So Different For Our Forecast Area.

Although The Models Differ Quite A Bit In The Mid Latitudes...They Are In Good Agreement In Developing A Large Tropical Cyclone Over The Western Caribbean Sea Next Week. It Is Too Early To Speculate Whether This Will Directly Impact Our Weather Beyond This Forecast Period.

Marine...Easterly Nocturnal Wind Surges Will Provide Our Offshore
Waters With Winds Between 15 And 20 Knots Each Morning. Seas Will
Range From 3 To 5 Feet Each Day With 2 To 3 Feet Likely Along The
Nearshore Legs. Winds Will Subside To Just Below Cautionary Criteria
Each Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Will
Exist Through The Early Afternoon Each Day.

Aviation...Vfr Conditions Will Prevail. We May See The Usual Mvfr
Vsbys And Ifr Cigs At Vld In The Pre-Hours. Winds Will Continue To
Be From The East And Gusty At Times During The Afternoon/Evening.

Fire Weather...No Fire Weather Concerns.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 69 92 73 90 71 / 0 10 10 40 10
Panama City 68 88 73 89 72 / 0 10 10 30 20
Dothan 65 92 68 91 70 / 0 0 0 20 10
Albany 65 91 69 91 70 / 0 10 0 30 10
Valdosta 66 92 69 89 70 / 0 20 0 40 20
Cross City 68 91 71 90 71 / 10 30 10 40 20
Apalachicola 74 86 75 88 74 / 0 10 10 30 20

TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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