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Weather US Extended Outlook Through Sep 29

The General Flow Pattern Features An Extratropical Transitioning
Typhoon Malakas Helping To Deepen Troughing In The Western
Pacific...Which In Turn Leads To Amplified Troughing Downstream
Near 140w...Building Ridging Across The Rockies/Great Basin...And
Deepening Troughing Over The Eastern Half Of The Lower 48 United
States. Day-To-Day And Run-To-Run Consistency Has Been
Fleeting...Though The Ecmwf And Its Ensemble Mean Have Shown The
Best Continuity Over The Past Few Days. Problems Lie With How
Much Energy Dives Out Of Southwestern/Central Canada And Through
The Upper Midwest To Cut Off From The Westerlies By Sunday...And
Whether Or Not Shortwave Energy Nearing The Great Lakes On
Monday/Tuesday Will Be Strong Enough To Lure The System More
Northeastward.

The Solutions Over The Past Several Days Have Converged... Somewhat... But Still Vary Quite A Bit When Browsing
The 110 00z Multi-Model/12z Gefs Ensemble Members. Recent
Gfs/Gefs Mean Runs Are On The Southwest Side Of The Guidance
Spread With The Canadian To The Northeast. Given The Swings In
The Guidance And Continuity That Leans To A Farther East
Solution... Leaned On The 00z Ecmwf And Its Ensemble Mean
Solutions Through The Period Which Split The Difference Between
The Current Guidance. Confidence Remains Lower Than Normal In The
Details Of The Forecast From Next Monday Onward.

Down South...The Deterministic And Ensemble Guidance Continue To
Advertise A System Lifting Out Of The Western Caribbean /Possibly
Invest 95l/ To The North Across Either The Yucatan Channel Or
Western Cuba By Mid Next Week. The 00z Canadian Was By Far The
Strongest/Largest With This System...And Was Discounted.
Considering The Trends Across The Midwest/East...It Appears That
This System Would Be Headed North To Northeast Into The Southeast
Gulf Of Mexico/Western Florida Straits Towards The Northeast Gulf
Coast/Florida In 7-10 Days. The Points Agreed Upon With Nhc Kept
Good Continuity With The Morning Issuance.

It Looks Wet Across The East From Monday Onward Due To The System Expected To Lie Across The Midwest And The System Moving Northward From The Western Caribbean. Even In A General Sense...The Location As To Where In The Plains/Midwest/East Will Be Wettest Remains Unclear...Though Florida Will Be In The Running By Next Tuesday/Wednesday.

Roth/Fracasso


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