Severe T-Storm US Outlook Sep 23

Day 2 Convective Outlook
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
0152 Am Cdt Wed Sep 22 2010

Valid 231200z - 241200z

...There Is A Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms From Cntrl Ks Into Wrn Ia...

...Synopsis...
An Upper Trough Will Move From The Rockies Into The Cntrl/Nrn Plains
During The Day. At The Surface...Low Pressure Will Be Centered Over Swrn Neb Thu Morning...And Will Gradually Deepen As It Moves Newd Into Cntrl Mn By 00z. Strong Low Level Warm Advection Will Be
Ongoing Early In The Period With A 50+ Kt Swly Low Level Jet
Resulting In A Broad Zone Of Isentropic Lift And Scattered Storms
From Nrn Ks Nwd Across Neb And Into Sd/Mn. By Late Afternoon...A
Cold Front Will Surge Sewd Across Sern Sd...Cntrl Neb And Into Wrn
Ks. This Front Will Be The Main Focus For Severe Storms Within The
Slight Risk Area.

...Cntrl/Srn Mn Into Wrn Wi Before 18z...
Relatively Cool Mid Level Temperatures Will Be In Place Across The
Upper Ms Valley Along With Numerous Showers And Storms Due Warm Advection Near A Warm Front. A Marginal Hail Threat May Exist With A Few Of These Storms Before Rapid Moistening And Warming Of The Column Occurs.

...Nrn Ks...Cntrl/Ern Neb 12-18z Into Wrn Ia After 18z...
Models Are Insistent On A Lead Shortwave Trough Moving From Nwrn Ks Into Ern Neb/Wrn Ia By Midday. Warm Advection With An Increasing Low Level Jet Will Also Aid In Lift. Forecast Soundings Indicate That The Warm Sector Will Be Moist With Extensive Low
Cloudiness...Beneath Relatively Warm Air Aloft With 500 Mb Temps Of
-4 To -6 C. Thus...Instability Will Be Quite Weak. However...Shear
Profiles Will Be Very Strong...Otherwise Favoring Supercells Or
Qlcs. If Enough Instability Exists With This Early Activity...A Few
Newd Moving Bows May Form With Mainly A Damaging Wind Threat.

By Late Afternoon...Cooling Aloft With The Upper Trough May Enhance Instability Levels Across Ern Neb/Wrn Ia...And The Cold Front Will Also Be Near The Mo River. Thus...Additional Activity May Reform
With A Threat Of Damaging Winds.

...Srn Neb Into Cntrl Ks Late Afternoon...
Some Heating And Steeper Low Level Lapse Rates Along The Low
Pressure Trough/Front Will Result In Marginal Instability While
Shear Profiles Remain Favorable For Supercells. A Few Damaging Wind Gusts May Occur With The Strongest Cells...And An Isolated Tornado Cannot Be Ruled Out Given Relatively Low Lcls And Favorable Low Level Shear. This Activity Should Become Linear With Time Along The Cold Front As It Moves Into Ern Ks Overnight.


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