Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE PERSISTENT RIDGE (CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.) TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW DIGS DOWN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER
WITH THIS FEATURE...AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA THAN
THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
OUR LONG RANGE FORECAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION TAKES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY FAIR WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION STALLS THIS FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
AS AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST MS THIS WEEKEND.
IT DOES NOT BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN NEVER SEEMS TO ALLOW A FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT ALL. THE CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
APPEAR WETTER THAN THE ECMWF THIS WEEKEND AS THEY PUT MORE EMPHASIS
ON A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE
TROPICS (CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS)
THIS WEEKEND...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST BY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM. ALL IN ALL THIS
A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS MAY BE ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. WE WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...NOT SO MUCH BECAUSE OF
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THEM...BUT BECAUSE BLENDING THE GFS AND ECMWF
JUST WILL NOT WORK BECAUSE THEY ARE SO DIFFERENT FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN THE MID
LATITUDES...THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE WHETHER THIS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR WEATHER
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Gray Television, Inc. - Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 103521344 - wtvy.com/a?a=103521344