Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINING THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC
FEATURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO
CONTINUE AS THE MEAN DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM
EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A BLEND OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE (60-65/85) THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH
AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. RAINFALL
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING OVER VLD/SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE MOISTURE
AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...THEY
ARE SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY
FLOW MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND BRINGING A SLIGHT SURGE OF
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS
...THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT OVER THESE
AREAS COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EXPRESS UNCERTAINTY.


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