Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

LONG TERM...
(FRI NIGHT - TUESDAY). THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ARE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...WHICH
PROVIDES A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEY INDICATE THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADA/GREAT LAKES AREA TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS BRINGS ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWING ITS
PASSAGE. IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES...THIS WILL BE THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW MORE PERSISTENCE
FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A TREND BACK TOWARD AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(65/86) BY THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (TUESDAY) NEXT
WEEK...WHICH LINES UP WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH.


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