Long Term Weather

(THURS. NIGHT - TUESDAY). THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO 24 HRS
AGO...WHICH PROVIDES A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEY INDICATE THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADA/GREAT LAKES AREA TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS BRINGS ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTH
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN THROUGH
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH
A VERY DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES...THIS WILL BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW MORE PERSISTENCE FROM RUN
TO RUN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW A TREND BACK TOWARD AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(65/86) BY THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (TUESDAY) NEXT
WEEK...WHICH LINES UP WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH.


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