Weather Southern AL Outlook Sep 17 Afternoon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
247 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 17 2010

Short Term [Tonight And Saturday]...17.12z Upper Air Map Analysis
Shows High Pressure Ridge Continuing Over The Northern Gulf. Upper
Level Energy Was Moving Eastward Into The Appalachians With A Surface Front Easing Southeastward Into The Mid South. The Boundary Looks To Make It Into The Central Portions Of The Forecast Area Through Saturday Before Stalling As Upper Level Ridge Noses Eastward And Upper Trof Over The Mid Atlantic/East Coast Broadens.

With The Stalled Front Draped Over The Region...Enough Deep Layer
Moisture (Pwat => 1.4-1.7") Along And South Of It Coupled With Weak
Lift And Unseasonably Warm Afternoon Temperatures On Sat Equates To The Potential Of A Few Afternoon Shwrs/Tstms Popping Up Mainly Over The Southern Half Of The Area. Given Current Data...Forecasters Will Maintain Continuity With The Previous Shift Though...With Risk Not
Being Enough To Include Mentioning In The Forecast.

Long Term [Sunday Through Friday]...Quiet Weather Pattern. Stalled
Frontal Boundary Dissipates Sun And Mon With A Weak Pressure Pattern Resulting In Light Winds. Area Looks To Remain Dry With Afternoon Temperatures Remaining Above Seasonal Normals Through The Early Half Of Next Week Due To A Semi-Permanent Upper Ridge Of High Pressure To Persist Over The Southeast States And Gulf Coast. The 17.12z Physical Solution Of The Operational Gfs Suggests That The Upper Ridge Will Remain Strong Enough Through The Entire Week...Suggesting That The Unseasonably Dry September Weather Story (As Far As Rain Is Concerned) Could Continue.

The Ecmwf Solution Though...Allows Better Moisture To Spread Westward Along The Gulf Coast By The Close Of Next Week Associated With A Westward Propagating Mid Level Trof Over The Gulf. Considering This...Will Make No Change To Current Forecast Calling For A Slight Chance Of Shwrs/Tstms By The End Of The Outlook
Period. No Changes To Extended Range Temperatures. A Better
Established East To Southeast Flow Late Next Week Suggests Highs
Closer To The 90 Degree Mark Wed Thru Fri. Lows Mid 60s Interior To
Lower 70 Coast.

Aviation...Primary Vfr Conditions Will Prevail Over The Next 24
Hours. Will Likely See Some High...Thin Cirrus Clouds Over The Region
Through The Period...With A Scattered Deck Of Cumulus Clouds The
Remainder Of This Afternoon And Maybe A Little More So On Saturday
Afternoon As A Weak Frontal Boundary Provides A Little Extra Lift
Over The Region. No Low Level Ceilings Are Expected.

Marine...Hurricane Karl Is Moving Inland Along The Mexican Coast Of
The Far Southwestern Gulf Of Mexico With No Affects On The Local
Coastal Waters Forecast. A High Pressure Ridge Will Generally Remain
Intact Across The Southeastern States Through The Weekend...But A
Weak Trof Will Drop South Slightly Weakening The Ridge. This Will
Not Bring Any Real Noticeable Changes To Current Pattern Over The
Al/Fl Coastal Waters. A General Easterly Flow Will Continue Through
The Forecast Period...With On Onshore Component In The Afternoons
And Evenings And An Offshore Component Late Nights And Early
Mornings. The Flow Will Be Moderate At Times...But Is Expected To
Mostly Remain On The Light Side Through The Weekend...With Seas No
More Than 2 To 4 Feet.

By The Middle Part Of Next Week...A Stronger Area Of High Pressure Will Build South Over The Eastern Seaboard As A Stronger Frontal Boundary Sets Up In The Plains States. This Pattern Will Result In Stronger East To Southeasterly Wind Flow Across The Marine Area By Midweek...With Building Seas.

Fire Weather...A Weak Frontal Zone Settles Across The Central Portions
Of The Forecast Tonight And Stalls. The Stalled Front Remains Draped
Over The Region Through The Weekend...Resulting In A Light And
Variable Wind Flow Pattern. Winds In The Mixed Layer Are Forecast To
Remain Light As Well But Deep Mixed Layers Result In Good Daytime
Dispersion. Chances Of Showers And Thunderstorms Look Slim Through The Weekend.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Mobile 72 93 71 92 / 05 10 05 05
Pensacola 74 94 74 92 / 05 10 05 05
Destin 77 90 76 90 / 05 10 05 05
Evergreen 67 94 67 94 / 05 10 05 05
Waynesboro 67 94 65 93 / 05 05 05 05
Camden 66 94 66 94 / 05 05 05 05
Crestview 67 95 67 94 / 05 10 05 05

MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Al...None.
Fl...None.
Ms...None.
Gm...None.


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