Weather Central AL Outlook Sep 17 Afternoon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Al
331 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 17 2010

Discussion...

This Afternoon...A Weak Boundary That We Can Loosely Call A Front...
Dare I Say Not Very Cold Though...Will Continue To Sag Southward A
Little More Before Stalling Out And Eventually Fizzling Out Over
The Latter Part Of The Weekend. There Are Drier Conditions Behind
The Front And A Wind Shift But Temperatures Are Still Very Warm
Behind The Front Today Across Central Alabama. Will Leave Have In
Isolated Pops For South Third Of The Cwa This Afternoon And This
Evening Due To Just Enough Heat And Forcing To Squeeze A Shower Or Two.

Upper Flow Today Is Somewhat Weak And More Zonal Than Northwest
Which Make Sense With This Weak System. Our Weak Flat Ridge Over
The Southeast United States Will Become More Pronounced Over The
Central Part Of The Country With The Influence From Igor As This
Massive Hurricane Moves Northwest A Little More Toward The East
Coast And Then Northward. In That Way Alabama Will Have An Effect
From Igor In The Way Of Warm And Dry Weather Over The Weekend.

By Monday...Igor Will Begin To Turn To The Northeast Along The
Western Atlantic. This Will Allow The Ridge Over The Central
United States To Shift To The East Over The Deep South Through
Tuesday. As We Move Into The Extended...By Late Tuesday...We See
This Ridge Breaking Down Over The Deep South With The Atlantic
Ridge Becoming More Of A Dominant Factor. This Will Allow For
Moisture To Begin To Filter Back Into The South. Have Decided To
Add Isolated Pops For Wednesday For Isolated Afternoon Diurnal
Activity As Model Data Has Been Consistent...But Only Low For Now
As I Think Moisture Will Still Be Limited At This Point.

Aviation...18z Taf Discussion.

Weak Frontal Boundary Moving Into The Area This Afternoon Will Do
Nothing More Than Create A Few Clouds. Winds Predominantly Around
5 Kts And Northerly.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Gadsden 61 92 62 94 65 / 10 0 10 0 10
Anniston 63 94 65 93 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 66 94 67 94 65 / 10 0 10 0 0
Tuscaloosa 65 95 65 96 63 / 10 0 10 0 10
Calera 66 95 66 93 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
Auburn 67 92 68 92 63 / 10 10 0 0 0
Montgomery 67 94 68 93 67 / 10 10 0 0 0
Troy 64 93 67 93 66 / 10 10 0 0 0

BMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.


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