Julia Barely A Hurricane - Stays Out To Sea

Hurricane Julia Advisory Number 23
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al122010
500 Pm Ast Fri Sep 17 2010

...Julia Gradually Weakening....

Summary Of 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...25.2n 48.2w
About 1525 Mi...2450 Km Wsw Of The Azores
Maximum Sustained Winds...75 Mph...120 Km/Hr
Present Movement...Wnw Or 300 Degrees At 18 Mph...30 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...987 Mb...29.15 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Julia Was Located
Near Latitude 25.2 North...Longitude 48.2 West. Julia Is Moving
Toward The West-Northwest Near 18 Mph. A Turn Toward The Northwest And North-Northwest Is Expected Tonight And Saturday...Followed By A Turn Toward The North On Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 75 Mph...120
Km/Hr...With Higher Gusts. Julia Is A Category One Hurricane On
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued Gradual
Weakening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km...From
The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115 Miles...185 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 987 Mb...29.15 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
None.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Julia Discussion Number 23
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al122010
500 Pm Ast Fri Sep 17 2010

Julia Has Been Experiencing Moderate Northerly Shear...And
At Times It Appears That The Low-Level Center Is Beginning To
Become Exposed. Using A Blend Of Subjective And Objective Dvorak
T-Numbers Leads To A Current Intensity Estimate Of 65 Kt. The
Shear...Which Is Primarily Associated With The Massive Outflow
Pattern Of Hurricane Igor...Is Not Likely To Relent. In Fact...
The Dynamical Guidance Suggests That The Shear Will Become Stronger.

The Official Intensity Forecast Shows Steady Weakening And Is Based
On A Combination Of The Statistical-Dynamical Ships And Lgem
Models. By The End Of The Forecast Period...Global Models Indicate
That Julia Will Become Absorbed By The Much Larger Circulation Of
Post-Tropical Igor.

The Initial Motion Is About 300/18. The Forecast Reasoning Is
Essentially Unchanged. Julia Is Expected To Move Around A
Mid-Level Subtropical High For The Next Few Days...Before Getting
Pulled Into The Circulation Of Igor. Thus...The Nhc Track Forecast
Shows A Gradual Turn Toward The Northwest...North...And North-
Northeast. This Is Just A Little To The West Of The Previous
Official Track And Generally To The Right Of The Multi-Model
Consensus.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 17/2100z 25.2n 48.2w 65 Kt
12hr Vt 18/0600z 26.9n 50.0w 60 Kt
24hr Vt 18/1800z 29.6n 51.8w 55 Kt
36hr Vt 19/0600z 32.5n 52.3w 50 Kt
48hr Vt 19/1800z 34.8n 51.2w 45 Kt
72hr Vt 20/1800z 38.2n 47.2w 35 Kt
96hr Vt 21/1800z 43.0n 43.0w 25 Kt
120hr Vt 22/1800z...Dissipated

Forecaster Pasch


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