Hurricane Igor Weakens To Cat 2 Strength

Hurricane Igor Advisory Number 39
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al112010
500 Pm Ast Fri Sep 17 2010

...Hurricane Igor Heading Northwestward...

Summary Of 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...23.7n 61.1w
About 635 Mi...1025 Km Sse Of Bermuda
Maximum Sustained Winds...105 Mph...165 Km/Hr
Present Movement...Nw Or 310 Degrees At 10 Mph...17 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...947 Mb...27.96 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected
Somewhere Within The Warning Area. A Warning Is Typically Issued 36
Hours Before The Anticipated First Occurrence Of Tropical-Storm-
Force Winds...Conditions That Make Outside Preparations Difficult
Or Dangerous. Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be
Rushed To Completion.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area Outside The United
States...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your National
Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Igor Was Located
Near Latitude 23.7 North...Longitude 61.1 West. Igor Is Moving
Toward The Northwest Near 10 Mph...17 Km/Hr. This General Motion
With Some Increase In Forward Speed Is Expected Tonight And
Saturday...Followed By A Turn Toward The North-Northwest Late
Friday Or Early Saturday. On The Forecast Track...The Center Of
The Hurricane Will Be Approaching Bermuda On Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 105 Mph...165
Km/Hr...With Higher Gusts. Igor Is A Category Two Hurricane On The
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slight Strengthening Is
Possible During The Next Day Or So...Followed By A Gradual
Weakening.

Igor Is An Unusually Large Hurricane. Hurricane Force Winds Extend
Outward Up To 105 Miles...165 Km...From The Center...And Tropical
Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 345 Miles...555 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 947 Mb...27.96 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected In Bermuda By Late
Saturday...With Hurricane Conditions Expected On Sunday.

Rainfall...Igor Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations
Of 5 To 8 Inches Over Bermuda.

Surf...Large Swells Will Continue To Affect The Leeward Islands...
Puerto Rico...The Virgin Islands...Hispaniola...And Portions Of The
Bahamas During The Next Couple Of Days. These Swells Will Also
Cause Dangerous Surf Conditions In Bermuda During The Next Several
Days...Which Will Worsen As Igor Approaches. Swells Will Continue
To Affect The East Coast Of The United States Through The Weekend.
These Swells Are Likely To Cause Life-Threatening Surf And Rip
Currents. Please Consult Products From Your Local Weather Office
For Additional Information.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...800 Pm Ast.
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Kimberlain

Hurricane Igor Discussion Number 39
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al112010
500 Pm Ast Fri Sep 17 2010

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Investigating Igor
Early This Afternoon Measured A Minimum Pressure Of 946 Mb. The
Hurricane Hunter Also Measured Maximum Flight-Level And Sfmr Winds
Of 102 And 79 Kt...Respectively. The Initial Intensity Is Lowered
To 90 Kt Based Upon The Aircraft Observations. Data From The Plane
Also Indicated A Rather Broad Wind Field...With The Presence Of A
Double Wind Maxima. Since The Plane Departed...The Cloud Pattern Of
Igor Has Increased In Organization...With Colder Cloud Tops
Developing Within The Inner Core And The Eye Becoming Visible
Again. Inner Core Dynamics Notwithstanding...There Appears To Be A
Final Window Of Opportunity For Re-Intensification During The Next
Day Or So As Igor Remains In A Light Shear Environment And Moves
Over Warm Waters. After About 36 Hours...A Gradual Increase In
Southerly And Southwesterly Shear And Cooler Waters Along The
Forecast Track Should Promote A Weakening Of Igor. The Official
Intensity Forecast Has Been Adjusted Downward A Bit In The Short
Term Based Upon Current Trends But Is Nearly The Same Later In The
Period. In Agreement With The Guidance...Igor Is Forecast To Become
A Large And Strong Extratropical Cyclone Over The Far North
Atlantic Beyond 96 Hours.

Igor Appears To Be On Track...And The Initial Motion Estimate Is
305/09. The Track Forecast Philosophy Has Not Changed. Igor
Should Be Steered Northwestward And Then North-Northwestward Around The Western Side Of A Subtropical Ridge During The Next 36 Hours. After That...A Vigorous Shortwave Trough Moving Across The
Northeastern U.S. Should Gradually Turn The Hurricane Northward In
The Vicinity Of Bermuda...And Then Northeastward With A Substantial
Increase In Forward Speed. The Official Nhc Track Forecast Is Very
Close To The Previous One And Remains Close To The Multi-Model
Consensus Near The Middle Of The Guidance Envelope.

The Wind Radii Have Been Expanded Based Upon Data From The
Reconnaissance Aircraft And An Earlier Ascat Overpass.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 17/2100z 23.7n 61.1w 90 Kt
12hr Vt 18/0600z 24.8n 62.4w 95 Kt
24hr Vt 18/1800z 26.2n 64.0w 100 Kt
36hr Vt 19/0600z 27.9n 64.9w 95 Kt
48hr Vt 19/1800z 30.0n 65.1w 90 Kt
72hr Vt 20/1800z 35.5n 62.0w 85 Kt
96hr Vt 21/1800z 43.5n 52.5w 75 Kt...Post-Trop/Extratrop
120hr Vt 22/1800z 52.0n 44.0w 65 Kt...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Kimberlain


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