Weather AL/FL/GA Outlook Sep 17 Afternoon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl
355 Pm Edt Fri Sep 17 2010

Recent Analysis Shows An Elongated Area Of High Pressure Stretched Across The Nrn Gulf And Southeast. Morning Sounding And Water Vapor Imagery Show Relatively Dry Mid-Level Air In Place Across The Region With Widespread Cirrus And A Sct Cumulus
Field Developing Behind The Seabreeze. Vis/Ir Imagery Reveal An
Impressive But Weakening Hurricane Karl Making Landfall Along The
Central Mexican Coast With A Weak Inverted Trough To The North
Producing Sct Convection Over The Wrn Gulf. Current Temps Across The Region Range From Low 90s Over The Ern Panhandle And Big Bend To Mid 90s Over Se Al And Sw Ga. A Few Isolated Showers This Morning Have Dissipated. Pops This Afternoon Will Be Limited To The Far Ern Big Bend Of Fl Where More Substantial Moisture May Overcome Suppressed Regime. Otherwise...Expect Sct Clouds Through The Afternoon With Continued Unusually Warm Weather.

Short Term...With A Relatively Stagnant Pattern...Pops Will Remain
Silent 10 Or Below For The Duration Of The Short Term. A Weak
Frontal Boundary Will Sag Into Central Al And Ga Saturday. This May
Enhance Convective Potential Over Nrn Portions Of The Cwa Saturday
Afternoon...But Activity Is Still Expected To Be Isolated At Best As
The Boundary Becomes More Diffuse. By Sunday...High Pressure Will
Ridge Back In From The West Bringing Another Round Of Hot And Dry
Weather To End The Weekend. With Low Rain Chances And Only Sct Cloud Cover Each Afternoon...Daytime Highs Will Continue To Be
Unseasonably Hot. Will Start Out Mainly In The Lower 90s On Saturday
Increasing To Mainly Mid 90s By Sunday Afternoon. Lows Will Be Mild
Saturday Morning Bottoming Out Only In The Low 70s To Upper
60s...But By Sunday Night...Most Areas Will See Lows In The Mid 60s
As Cooler Drier Air Is Advected Into The Region East Of The Building
Ridge.

Long Term...(Monday Through Friday)...Still Very Little In Terms
Of Changes In Thinking From The Last 2 Night`S Worth Of Long Term
Discussions...As The Upper Level Ridge Which Has Been So Dominant
Throughout This Record Tying Hot Summer (In Tallahassee) Will
Continue To Be The Primary Weather Influence Across The Se U.S.
Through At Least Wednesday. This Will Keep Conditions Both Hot And
Fairly Humid For This Time Of Year With Highs And Lows Averaging
Above Climo Values With The More Pronounced Departures Expected To Be With The Afternoon Highs. This Will Also Keep Pops Very Low...As Is Typically The Case The Further We Get Into September. For
Wednesday And Thursday...

However...The Global Models May Be Hinting At A Subtle Change In The Pattern...And Though The Upper Ridge May Still Be To The North...Sfc Ridging Building To The Northeast May Finally Allow For Enough Increased Moisture Advection To Account For Perhaps 20-30 Percent Afternoon Pops. After Viewing The Latest 00 Utc Gfs Run And The Older 12 Utc Ecmwf Run...Will Be Very Interested In How The New 00 Utc Run Of The Ecmwf Handles The Above Scenario When It Arrives Later Today.

Marine...With High Pressure Firmly In Place...Marine Zones Will See
Pleasant Weather With Relatively Low Winds And Seas. Seas Will
Remain In The 1 To 2 Foot Range And 2 To 3 Feet Further Offshore. A
Stalled Frontal Boundary Will Slowly Weaken And Dissipate Through
The Weekend. By The Beginning Of Next Week...High Pressure Will
Build In To The North. This Will Result In Increased Winds And Seas
By Midweek As Strong Easterlies Set Up Over The Marine Area. Winds
And Seas May Approach Headline Criteria Toward The Middle To Latter
Part Of Next Week.

Aviation...Vfr Conditions To Prevail Through The Evening And Into
Most Of The Overnight Hours. Cu Field Will Dissipate With The
Setting Of The Sun This Evening. Late Tonight...And Especially
Around Sunrise Would Expect Patchy Ground Fog Which May Bring A
Brief Period Of Mvfr Restrictions To Any Of The Terminals. The
Patchy Fog Will Burn Off Quickly Saturday Morning...With Vfr
Conditions Prevailing Through The Remainder Of The Day.

Fire Weather...Dry And Warm Conditions Will Prevail Through The
Upcoming Weekend And Into At Least The First Half Of Next Week. High
Mixing Heights Will Result In High Dispersion Indices The Next Few
Day. The Warm Temperatures Will Bring Rh Values Down Into The Upper 30s For Many Inland Locations The Next Several Afternoons. At This Time There Are Not Red Flag Warnings Or Fire Weather Watches In
Effect...However Do To The High Dispersions...Any Trend Toward Drier
Conditions With Future Forecasts May Result In Critical Fire Weather
Conditions Being Reached.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 68 92 68 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 75 90 75 91 74 / 10 10 0 0 0
Dothan 68 94 67 94 65 / 0 10 10 0 0
Albany 68 94 67 93 65 / 0 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 65 92 66 92 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cross City 67 91 67 92 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 76 88 75 88 74 / 10 10 10 0 10

TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Al...None.
Ga...None.
Fl...None.
Gm...None.


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