Hurricane Julia Weaker..Stays Out At Sea

Hurricane Julia Advisory Number 19
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al122010
500 Pm Ast Thu Sep 16 2010

Julia Continues To Weaken As It Races Northwestward Across The
Open Atlantic...

Summary Of 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...23.1n 41.1w
About 1325 Mi...2130 Km Sw Of The Azores
Maximum Sustained Winds...85 Mph...140 Km/Hr
Present Movement...Wnw Or 295 Degrees At 25 Mph...41 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...981 Mb...28.97 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Julia Was Located
Near Latitude 23.1 North...Longitude 41.1 West. Julia Is Moving
Toward The West-Northwest Near 25 Mph...41 Km/Hr. A Turn Toward The Northwest With A Decrease In Forward Speed Is Expected By Friday...Followed By A Turn Toward The North-Northwest On Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 85 Mph...140
Km/Hr...With Higher Gusts. Julia Is A Category One Hurricane On
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some Weakening Is
Forecast During The Next Couple Of Days...And Julia Could Weaken To
A Tropical Storm By Friday Night Or Saturday.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km...From
The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140 Miles...220 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 981 Mb...28.97 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
None.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Julia Discussion Number 19
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al122010
500 Pm Ast Thu Sep 16 2010

Vertical Shear Appears To Have Abated For The Moment...With A 1533
Utc Amsr-E Microwave Pass Showing That The Low- And Mid-Level
Centers Are Just About Vertically Stacked. However...Convective
Tops Have Warmed...And Satellite Current Intensity Estimates Are
Now 77 Kt From Tafb...65 Kt From Sab...And 65 Kt And 80 Kt From Two
Versions Of The Uw-Cimss Adt. The Initial Intensity Is Therefore
Lowered To 75 Kt For This Advisory.

Julia Has An Initial Motion Of 295/22 Kt. There Has Been A
Significant Westward Shift In Nearly All The Track Guidance On This
Cycle...Possibly Due To A Stronger-Than-Expected Mid-Level High To
The North And Northeast Of The Hurricane. Consequently...The New
Official Forecast Has Been Shifted Westward About Halfway Between
Ofci And The Model Consensus Tvcn. Several Models...Especially The
Ukmet And Ecmwf...Are Even Farther West Than This Track So It Is
Possible That Additional Shifts Could Be Required In The Next Few
Advisory Packages. Global Model Fields Indicate That After Julia
Moves Northward Around The Ridge...It Should Turn Toward The
Northeast And Dissipate In The Strong Southwesterly Flow To The
East Of Igor In About 120 Hours.

With The Westward Shift In The Forecast Track...Julia Appears To
Have A Better Chance To Maintain Some Of Its Intensity Over The
Next Couple Of Days. The Hurricane Will Be Battling The Strong
Upper-Level Outflow Of Igor During The Next 36 Hours Or So...But
After That The Global Models Suggest That Julia Could Sneak
Underneath The Upper-Level Anticyclone Partially Generated By Igor.
The Shear Could Relax Just Enough During That Time And Cause More
Modest Weakening...So The New Intensity Forecast Is A Little Bit
Higher Than The Previous One From 36-72 Hours. Incidentally... The
New Forecast Is Still Lower Than Indicated By The Lgem...The
Dynamical Models...And The Intensity Consensus.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 16/2100z 23.1n 41.1w 75 Kt
12hr Vt 17/0600z 24.2n 43.9w 65 Kt
24hr Vt 17/1800z 26.0n 47.1w 65 Kt
36hr Vt 18/0600z 27.9n 49.6w 60 Kt
48hr Vt 18/1800z 30.1n 51.0w 55 Kt
72hr Vt 19/1800z 34.0n 50.5w 45 Kt
96hr Vt 20/1800z 37.0n 47.0w 35 Kt
120hr Vt 21/1800z...Dissipated

Forecaster Berg


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