Severe T-storm US Outlook for Sep 16

Day 1 Convective Outlook
Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Issued By 15th Ows Scott Air Force Base Il
0252 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 16 2010

Valid 162000z - 171200z

There Is A Slgt Risk Of Svr Tstms Over Portions Of The Oh Valley...

...Upper Oh Valley...
A Well-Defined Mid Level Shortwave Trough And Its Associated Surface Low Will Track Eastward Across The Eastern Great Lakes Region Today.
The Trailing Cold Front Which Currently Extends From Mi Southward
Across Portions Of Oh/In/Il Will Continue Its Eastward Progression
And Help To Focus Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorm Development Over Oh/Wv And Western Pa. Current Visual Satellite Shows Cb Development Through Central Oh As A Result Of The Destabilization In The Warm Sector. Mlcape Values Of 1000-1500 J/Kg Have Developed In
Pre-Frontal Warm Sector. Forecast Soundings Suggest Favorable Deep Layer Effective Shear For Organized Or Even Supercell Storms Capable Of Hail And Damaging Winds...Or Even A Tornado Or Two Around Peak Heating This Afternoon. Threat Should Diminish Quickly As Storms Spread Eastward Into Wv/Pa Where A More Stable Air Mass Is Expected.

...Ny/Eastern Pa/Nj/Southern New England...
The Combination Of Moderate Instability And Rather Strong Westerly
Flow Aloft Still Suggest A Risk Of Storm Intensification And The
Threat Of Locally Damaging Winds Later Today From Southeast Ny/
Central Nj Into Southern New England. Primary Uncertainty Will Be
Extent Of Tstm Development In This Region Do To Weak Forcing.

...Southern Plains...
A Weak Shortwave Trough Passing Across Az Will Continue To Weaken As It Approaches The Southern Plains This Evening. Scattered
Thunderstorms Will Continue From Eastern Nm...Across West Tx/Tx
Panhandle...Into Southern Ok. Despite Weak Wind Fields And
Shear...Moderate To Strong Cape Values Indicate A Risk Of A Few
Storms Producing Hail Or Gusty/Damaging Winds.


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