Hurricane Julia Weakens..Stays At Sea

Hurricane Julia Advisory Number 18
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al122010
1100 Am Ast Thu Sep 16 2010

...Julia Weakening As It Moves Quickly Northwestward Over
Open Waters Of The Eastern Atlantic...

Summary Of 1100 Am Ast...1500 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...22.4n 38.6w
About 1050 Mi...1690 Km Wnw Of The Cape Verde Islands
About 1280 Mi...2060 Km Sw Of The Azores
Maximum Sustained Winds...100 Mph...160 Km/Hr
Present Movement...Wnw Or 300 Degrees At 25 Mph...41 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...971 Mb...28.67 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Am Ast...1500 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Julia Was
Located Near Latitude 22.4 North...Longitude 38.6 West. Julia Is
Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 25 Mph...41 Km/Hr. This
General Motion Is Expected To Continue Today And Tonight...Followed
By A Gradual Turn Toward The Northwest At A Slower Forward Speed By Friday Evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 100 Mph...160 Km/Hr...With Higher
Gusts. Julia Is A Category Two Hurricane On The Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional Weakening Is Forecast During The
Next 48 Hours...And Julia Could Weaken To A Tropical Storm By Friday
Evening.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km...From
The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140 Miles...220 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 971 Mb...28.67 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
None.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...500 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane Julia Discussion Number 18
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al122010
1100 Am Ast Thu Sep 16 2010

Satellite Imagery Continues To Indicate Warming Of The Cloud Tops In
The Rather Ragged Looking Central Dense Overcast. A 1001z Amsu
Microwave Overpass Indicated A 25-30 Nmi Diameter Eye That Was Open In The Southeast Quadrant. Water Vapor Imagery Also Shows A Large Slug Of Dry Air Being Entrained Into The Eastern Semicircle...Which Likely Explains The Erosion Of The Eastern Eyewall Noted In The Amsu Imagery. Despite The Aforementioned Negative Factors...Julia Has Maintained Good Outflow To The West And North Of The Cyclone.

The Initial Motion Estimate Has Increased Sharply To 300/22. Julia
Is Expected To Move To The West-Northwest And Then Northwest
For The Next 36-48 Hours As The Hurricane Rounds The Southern
Periphery Of A Large Subtropical Ridge Situated To Its North And
Northeast. After That...Significant Vertical Wind Shear May Weaken
The Cyclone And Cause It To Become More Shallow...And Then Be
Steered More Northward Similar To The Ecmwf And Gfdl Models...But
Not As Far North And West As The Shallow Bam Model. The Official
Track Forecast Has Been Nudged To The Left Of The Previous Advisory Through 72 Hours...And Is Similar To The Multi-Model Consensus.

Dry Air And Cooler Ssts Should Continue The Recent Weakening
Trend...Especially After 24 Hours. By 36-48 Hours...All Of The
Global Models Indicate That Julia Will Be Moving Into A Region Of
Strong Upper-Level Shear Caused By The Pronounced Northerly Outflow Emanating From The Major Hurricane Igor Located To Its West. With Julia Moving Into 50-70 Kt Of 200 Mb Winds...It Will Be Hard For
Julia To Survive As A Tropical Cyclone As Indicated By The Global
Models And Gfdl/Hwrf Models. The Official Intensity Forecast Shows
A Faster Weakening Trend Than The Previous Advisory...But Not As
Fast As The Ships Model...Which Dissipates Julia By 120 Hours.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 16/1500z 22.4n 38.6w 85 Kt
12hr Vt 17/0000z 23.7n 41.2w 75 Kt
24hr Vt 17/1200z 25.5n 44.6w 65 Kt
36hr Vt 18/0000z 27.3n 47.3w 55 Kt
48hr Vt 18/1200z 29.3n 49.1w 45 Kt
72hr Vt 19/1200z 33.2n 49.6w 35 Kt
96hr Vt 20/1200z 35.8n 46.3w 35 Kt
120hr Vt 21/1200z 38.0n 42.0w 35 Kt

Forecaster Stewart


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