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Hurricane Igor Still Threatens Bermuda

Hurricane Igor Advisory Number 34...Corrected
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al112010
1100 Am Ast Thu Sep 16 2010

Corrected For Motion In Headline

...Large And Powerful Igor Moving Slowly Northwestward...

Summary Of 1100 Am Ast...1500 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...21.0n 57.2w
About 430 Mi...690 Km Ene Of The Northern Leeward Islands
About 910 Mi...1465 Km Sse Of Bermuda
Maximum Sustained Winds...140 Mph...220 Km/Hr
Present Movement...Nw Or 305 Degrees At 7 Mph...11 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...934 Mb...27.58 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Am Ast...1500 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Igor Was Located
Near Latitude 21.1 North...Longitude 57.2 West. Igor Is Moving
Toward The Northwest Near 7 Mph...11 Km/Hr. This General Motion With An Increase In Forward Speed Are Expected Over The Next Couple Of Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 140 Mph...220 Km/Hr...With Higher
Gusts. Igor Is A Category Four Hurricane On The Saffir-Simpson
Scale. Fluctuations In Strength Are Likely During The Next Couple
Of Days...But Igor Is Expected To Remain A Large And Powerful
Hurricane.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km...From
The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 275 Miles...445 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 934 Mb...27.58 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Surf...Large Swells Generated By Igor Will Continue To Affect The
Leeward Islands...Puerto Rico And The Virgin Islands Today And
Friday. These Swells Will Also Cause Dangerous Surf Conditions In
Bermuda During The Next Several Days. These Surf Conditions Will
Worsen As Igor Approaches Bermuda. The Large Swells Are Also
Expected To Reach Portions Of The Bahamas Later Today And Continue Through The Weekend. Swells Will Reach The East Coast Of The United States Later Today And Friday Through At Least Sunday. These Swells Are Likely To Cause Life-Threatening Surf And Rip Current Conditions. Please Consult Products From Your Local Weather Office For Additional Information.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...500 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Kimberlain

Hurricane Igor Discussion Number 34...Corrected
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al112010
1100 Am Ast Thu Sep 16 2010

Correct Initial Intensity From 115 Kt To 120 Kt

Igor Is Maintaining Very Deep Convection And A 30-35 Nmi Wide Eye
Within A Central Dense Overcast...But The Overall Convective
Pattern Has Become More Asymmetric. The Restricted Nature Of The
Outflow To The West Of The Cyclone Suggests Some Upper-Level
Westerly Flow Impinging On The Circulation...Which May Also Be
Contributing To The Ragged Appearance Of The Cdo. Subjective Dvorak
T-Numbers Are A Consensus 6.0 At 1200 Utc And Serve As The Basis
For Lowering The Intensity To 120 Kt For This Advisory. An Air
Force Reserve Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft Is Scheduled To
Investigate Igor In A Few Hours And Will Provide A More Accurate
Assessment Of Its Intensity.

Water Vapor Imagery Suggests That The Combination Of A Shear Axis
Northwest Of Igor And The Southwestward Displacement Of The
Upper-Level Anticyclone Associated With Igor May Be Imparting Weak
To Moderate Westerly Shear To The Hurricane. Ships Model Output
Indicates That This Shear May Persist For Next 12-24 Hours And Then
Decrease...Allowing For Some Intensification Before About 48 Hours.
Although Inner Core Dynamics Will Likely Induce Some Difficult To
Predict Fluctuations In Intensity...Igor Is Expected To Remain A
Large And Formidable Hurricane For The Next 3 To 4 Days. After
That...Increasing Southwesterly Shear And Gradually Cooler Waters
Should Lead To Weakening Of The Cyclone...With The Weakening
Possibly Greater Than Indicated If The 30 To 45 Kt Of Shear
Predicted By The Gfs Verifies. The Guidance Also Indicates That
Extratropical Transition Will Be Underway By Day 5. The Official
Forecast Is Slightly Higher Than Some Of The Statistical-Dynamical
Guidance But Similar To The Previous Intensity Forecast.

Igor Has Been Wobbling About An Initial Motion Of 305/06. Little Has
Changed Regarding The Overall Track Philosophy. The Hurricane Is
Expected To Move Northwestward Around The Western Periphery Of A
Subtropical Ridge During The Next 72 Hours. Beyond 72 Hours...Igor
Should Become Embedded Within The Mid-Latitude West-Southwesterly
Flow Ahead Of A Vigorous Shortwave Trough Moving Through The
Northeastern U.S. And The Canadian Maritimes...And Turn North And
Then Northeast With Increasing Forward Speed. The Spread In The
Model Guidance Has Decreased Since Yesterday...With The Latest
Solutions Trending Slightly Leftward And Tightly Clustered Around
The Official Forecast.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 16/1500z 21.0n 57.2w 120 Kt
12hr Vt 17/0000z 21.5n 58.3w 115 Kt
24hr Vt 17/1200z 22.4n 60.0w 120 Kt
36hr Vt 18/0000z 23.8n 61.7w 120 Kt
48hr Vt 18/1200z 25.3n 63.2w 120 Kt
72hr Vt 19/1200z 29.0n 65.0w 105 Kt
96hr Vt 20/1200z 33.5n 63.5w 95 Kt
120hr Vt 21/1200z 39.0n 56.5w 80 Kt

Forecaster Kimberlain


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