Long Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS POWERFUL HURRICANE IGOR PASSES SAFELY TO THE NE OF THE
EAST COAST OF FL. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE INTO A HOT AND DRY
FCST FOR THE ABOVE 4 DAY PERIOD WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS STILL HOLDING IN
AROUND THE 500 DM RANGE GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DECAMETERS. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP OUR FAIRLY REMARKABLE STREAK OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
(ESPECIALLY HIGH TEMPS) GOING FOR YET ANOTHER WEEK WITH NO TRUE SIGN
OF FALL IN SIGHT. ALSO...THE LATEST SET OF MEX GUIDANCE HAS EVEN
BUMPED UP LOW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS WELL...SO WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE RECORD BOOKS FOR AVERAGE SEPTEMBER TEMPS IN
TALLAHASSEE. AS OF SEPT 13TH...OUR MEAN TEMP WAS 83.0...BUT #1 ON
THE ALL TIME LIST WAS A TREMENDOUS 84.0 RECORDED IN 1925.
HOWEVER...NUMBERS 2-5 WILL PROBABLY BE WELL WITHIN REACH AS THEIR
MEANS IN ORDER ARE 81.6 IN 1933 AND 1921...AND 81.0 IN 2005. AS FOR
POPS...DESPITE THE 20%S BEING INTRODUCED IN THE MEX GUIDANCE...
BELIEVE THAT THIS IS MORE AN ARTIFACT OF THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING
WITH CLIMATOLOGY THAN THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN.
THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE SILENT 10S IN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


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