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Short Term Discussion

By: NWS
By: NWS

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL NOT CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND NEITHER WILL THE FORECAST. ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL PROTECT OUR REGION FROM ANY
MID-LATITUDE DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH...AND PREVENT TROPICAL STORM
KARL (CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA) FROM THREATENING OUR
REGION EITHER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR NORTH
WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEA-BOARD...HOWEVER AN
EXTENSION OF THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE STACKED RIDGING WILL RESULT IN OUR
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINING ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW...AND DAYTIME TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE (LOWER 90S INLAND/ UPPER 80S COAST). CAN NOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY TOWARD THE I-75
CORRIDOR/SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOCUS ALONG THE
ARRIVING EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE. THE LATEST LOCAL HI-RES WRF OUTPUT
IS ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND DOES MOVE A FEW SHOWERS INTO
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES AFTER 2-3 PM. HOWEVER...ANY LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION THAT DOES GET GOING WILL BE WIDELY SCT AND VERY BRIEF IN
NATURE.

ANOTHER RELATIVE COOL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALLOWING INLAND LOCATIONS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE
60S BY SUNRISE. ALONG THE COAST TEMPS WILL DROP TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...
THE FLOW WILL FAVOR A SLOW REBOUND IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND HENCE
A REBOUND IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL BE BACK NEAR CLIMO IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND...AND LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.


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