Weather Southern Alabama Sep 15 Afternoon Outlook

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Al
352 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 15 2010

Short Term (Tonight Through Friday Night)...Easterly Wave Departing
The Fcst Area To The West This Evening...Producing Some Isolated Shra Late This Afternoon As It Passes. Will Possibly See A Few Lingering Shra Over Swrn Zones In Vcnty Of Trof Axis This Evening...Where Better Gulf Moisture Is Available...But Will Keep Any Mention Of Pcpn Out Of Fcst For Now. Anything That Does Linger Ending By Mid Evening. After The Wave Moves West Of The Region...Don`T Look For Much (If Any) In The Way Of Pcpn For Remainder Of The Short Term Period As High Pressure Dominates The Region. Nighttime Temps Over The Next Two Nights Will Continue To Range From Low To Mid 60s Over Interior Zones...And Low To Mid 70s Along The Coast.

Long Term (Saturday Through Wednesday)...A Weak Frontal Boundary
Will Drop South Into The Fcst Area And Dissipate Over The
Weekend...But Lack Of Moisture And Any Real Dynamics Will Result In
Little Pcpn With This Feature. It Will Bring A Reinforcement To The
Drier Air Mass In Place Over The Region...But No Significant Changes
In Temperatures Expected. If Anything...Afternoon Temps May Be Even
Warmer Than Currently Advertised For Early Next Week As Large Upper Ridge Builds Over The Region...Providing Compressional Heating And Very Little In The Way Of Clouds/Pcpn. For Now...Will Call For Overnight Lows In The Long Term Period To Range From The Mid/Upper 60s Over The Interior...And Lower 70s Closer To The Coast.

Aviation (18z/00z Issuances)...Aftn Cu Expected Through 00z. May Be A Pop Up Shower Or Storm But Probabilities Too Low To Mention In Terminals Attm. A Light Se Wind Becoming More South Across The Immediate Coast Aft 21z...Then E To Ne By Sunrise. Vfr Conditions Expected Next 24 Hrs.

Marine...High Pressure Will Continue Over The Southeast Through
Thursday. The High Begins To Weaken Over The Weekend As A Weak Front Drops Into The Deep South And Stalls North Of The Coastal Waters. A Light To Moderate East To Southeast Wind Is Forecast With Seas Ranging From 2 To 4 Feet Through The Period. Meanwhile...Karl
Weakens While Tracking Over The Yucatan Peninsula Tonight...But Is
Forecast To Emerge Over The Warm Waters Of The Bay Of Campeche
Thursday And Continue Westward Through Friday...While
Restrengthening. Karl Is Being Steered By An Expansive Mid Level
Ridge That Will Hold Over The Northern Gulf Of Mexico. In
Essence...This Ridge Acts As A Shield Over The Northern
Gulf...Preventing Karl From Moving Poleward And Making Direct
Impacts To The Local Area. Karl Moves Westward In The Direction Of
The East Central Mexican Coast By Saturday Morning.

Fire Weather...Daytime Relative Humidity Values Will Range From The Mid 30s To Lower 40s Over Inland Areas Thursday And Friday...And From The Mid 40s To Around 50 Percent Closer To The Coast...With Highest Values Along The Immediate Coastal Areas. Moderate Dispersion And Mixing Expected. Humidity Levels Will Stay Above Red Flag Criteria Through The Week...So No Headlines.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Mobile 70 90 71 93 / 10 05 05 05
Pensacola 73 91 73 93 / 10 05 05 05
Destin 74 89 75 91 / 10 05 05 05
Evergreen 64 92 66 94 / 05 05 05 05
Waynesboro 64 93 65 94 / 05 05 05 05
Camden 64 93 66 94 / 05 05 05 05
Crestview 64 92 66 94 / 05 05 05 05

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