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Major Hurricane Julia In Open Atlantic

Hurricane Julia Advisory Number 15
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al122010
500 Pm Ast Wed Sep 15 2010

...Julia Weakens Slightly...

Summary Of 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...19.2n 33.5w
About 665 Mi...1070 Km Wnw Of The Cape Verde Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds...125 Mph...205 Km/Hr
Present Movement...Nw Or 315 Degrees At 17 Mph...28 Km/Hr
Minimum Central Pressure...953 Mb...28.14 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 500 Pm Ast...2100 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Julia Was Located
Near Latitude 19.2 North...Longitude 33.5 West. Julia Is Moving
Toward The Northwest Near 17 Mph...28 Km/Hr. This General Motion
With An Increase In Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next Day
Or Two.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 125 Mph...205 Km/Hr...With Higher
Gusts. Julia Is A Category Three Hurricane On The Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual Weakening Is Forecast During The
Next Day Or Two.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km...From
The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 125 Miles...205 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 953 Mb...28.14 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
None.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Ast.

Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Julia Discussion Number 15
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al122010
500 Pm Ast Wed Sep 15 2010

The Eye Of Julia Has Been Apparent Intermittently In Infrared
Satellite Imagery This Afternoon. A 1912 Utc Ssmis Microwave
Overpass Indicates That There Is Some Tilt To The Circulation With
The Low-Level Center Located A Little To The South Of The Mid- To
Upper-Level Eye...Due To South-Southwesterly Shear. Julia Has
Likely Peaked In Intensity. The Initial Intensity Is Lowered To
110 Kt...Based On A Blend Of Subjective And Objective Dvorak Data
T-Numbers That Have Decreased Slightly. The Cyclone Will Be Moving
Into A Less Favorable Environment With Moderate Southerly Shear And
Slightly Cooler Ssts During The Next Day Or So. This Should Result
In Gradual Weakening. After 48 Hours...The Global Models Show Julia
Moving Into An Area Of Increasing Northeasterly Upper-Level Winds
Associated With The Outflow From Hurricane Igor. A Faster Rate Of
Weakening Is Indicated By The Intensity Guidance And In The
Official Forecast At That Time. The Nhc Forecast Is Close To The
Intensity Consensus At Days 3-5...But Is Higher Than The Ships
Guidance Which Weakens The Julia Very Rapidly After 72 Hours.

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 315/11. Julia Is Forecast To Move
Northwestward Around An Upper-Level Low To Its Southwest During The Next 12-24 Hours. During This Time...The Forward Speed Of Julia Is Forecast To Increase. Between 24 And 72 Hours...The Hurricane Will
Be Steered In A West-Northwest To Northwest Direction Around The
Western Periphery Of A Mid-Level Ridge Centered Between Julia And
The Azores Islands. Thereafter...Julia Should Turn Northward...Then Northeastward Between The Northwest Side Of The Ridge And Hurricane Igor To The West. The Track Guidance Is In A Little Better Agreement For This Cycle. The New Nhc Track Forecast Has Been Adjusted Somewhat Northward And Lies Near The Middle Of
The Model Envelope.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 15/2100z 19.2n 33.5w 110 Kt
12hr Vt 16/0600z 20.6n 35.5w 105 Kt
24hr Vt 16/1800z 22.6n 38.9w 100 Kt
36hr Vt 17/0600z 24.3n 42.4w 95 Kt
48hr Vt 17/1800z 26.0n 45.5w 85 Kt
72hr Vt 18/1800z 30.0n 49.6w 75 Kt
96hr Vt 19/1800z 34.0n 49.0w 60 Kt
120hr Vt 20/1800z 36.0n 45.0w 45 Kt

Forecaster Brown


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